国泰君安期货所长早读-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's September import and export data exceeded expectations, with exports in US dollars up 8.3% year - on - year and imports up 7.4% year - on - year [7][8]. - Glass is short - term weak and medium - term in a volatile market; sugar is under pressure due to supply surplus expectations [9][10]. - Different commodities have different price trends, such as gold continuing to hit new highs, silver approaching a 50 - high, etc. [13] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Today's Discovery - China's September import and export data in US dollars showed strong growth, with export growth at a six - month high and import growth at a 17 - month high. The acceleration of imports may be related to policy - based financial tools and project starts [7][8]. 3.2 Director's Top Picks Glass - Short - term: Market has large differences on future production cuts, downstream has sufficient inventory, and real - estate market is weak, so the spot market is weak. - Medium - term: Anti - deflation and anti - involution policies are still in the window period, and the previous high futures premium has changed, so be cautious at low levels [9]. Sugar - Brazil's sugar production and export situation: As of September 16, 25/26 season, cumulative sugar production was 3039 million tons, and September exports decreased. - India has a large - scale production increase expectation, with an expected 3490 million tons in the 25/26 season. - China's sugar imports remain at a high level, with an expected import volume of 500 million tons in both 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [10]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report Precious Metals - Gold continues to hit new highs, and silver approaches a 50 - high. The report provides detailed price, trading volume, inventory, and other data [13][17]. Base Metals - Copper: Market sentiment improves, and prices rise. - Zinc: Weakly volatile. - Lead: Domestic inventory reduction limits price decline. - Tin: Pay attention to macro - impacts. - Aluminum: Ranges in a volatile market; alumina's center of gravity moves down; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [13][23][26]. Other Metals and Minerals - Nickel: Macro - sentiment turns bearish, and prices are low - level volatile. - Stainless steel: Macro and reality jointly exert pressure, and the lower - cost limit restricts price elasticity. - Carbonate lithium: Warehouse receipts are largely liquidated, providing upward momentum. - Industrial silicon: Limited upside space. - Polysilicon: There are many self - discipline meetings this week, warehouse receipts are slightly liquidated, and market sentiment may improve [13][39][42]. Building Materials and Energy - Iron ore: Widely volatile. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Weak reality and weakening expectations may lead to a slight decline in steel prices. - Coke and coking coal: Macro - expectations are fluctuating, and prices are weakly volatile. - Logs: Fluctuate repeatedly [13][51][60]. Chemicals - PX and PTA: Weak in the medium term. - MEG: 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [13][66].