Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 14, 2025 - Analysts: Bian Shuyang, Kang Quangui Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The deterioration of Sino-US trade relations has increased the bullish sentiment in the soybean market, leading to a halt in the decline of spot and futures prices or a slight rebound. However, the fundamental pressure cannot be ignored in the short term, and the support of the sentiment boost on prices is expected to decrease, with the risk of a renewed decline [3]. - The domestic soybean market is currently in the peak season of new crop harvest and listing, with abundant spot supply and significant price pressure. The prices of new low and medium protein soybeans are gradually falling, and there is still a possibility of further decline as the listing volume continues to increase [3]. - The soybean futures price has been fluctuating recently, supported by the sentiment of trade deterioration and pressured by the sufficient supply in the fundamentals, with limited actual gains. Attention should be paid to the risk of decline after the accumulation of fundamental pressure [3]. Section Summaries Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - Price Range Forecast: The price range of the Soybean No. 1 contract 11 in October is predicted to be between 3,850 and 4,000, with a current volatility of 10.17% and a historical percentile of 24.3% [2]. - Risk Strategies: - Inventory Management for Sellers: For those with long spot positions, such as growers with a high demand for selling new soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 futures contract at a ratio of 30% when the price rebounds to the range of 4,000 - 4,050 to lock in planting profits. Also, selling the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at a ratio of 30% when the option price is between 30 - 50 can increase the selling price [2]. - Procurement Management for Buyers: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter and then go long on the A2603 and A2605 contracts [2]. Market Data - Daily Price Changes: On October 13, 2025, compared with October 10, 2025, the closing prices of various soybean futures contracts showed an upward trend. For example, the closing price of Soybean No. 1 contract 11 increased by 8 to 3,961, with a daily increase of 0.20%; the closing price of contract 01 increased by 19 to 3,967, with a daily increase of 0.48% [4]. - Other Market Indicators: The report also presents data on soybean price trends, seasonal changes in trading volume, and seasonal changes in registered warehouse receipts, but specific numerical analyses are not provided in the text [6][7][11] Market Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The recent deterioration of Sino - US trade relations has provided emotional support for domestic soybeans [3]. - Negative Factors: Attention should be paid to the results of today's auctions, policy procurement trends, and the short - term support from the purchase demand driven by the return of grain in two - way auctions [3][5]
南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20251014
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-14 01:59