格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20251014

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (treasury bond) sector is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The market's reaction to the tariff information is generally optimistic, believing that the probability of a compromise between China and the US in the future is relatively high, resulting in a narrowing decline in the stock market and a corresponding correction in the bond market. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short - term [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated horizontally in the morning session, and slightly declined in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.37%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02% [1] - The Wande All - A index opened significantly lower due to the US President's tariff threat on Friday, quickly rebounded in the morning, fluctuated horizontally, and then oscillated upward in the afternoon, recovering most of the losses. The trading volume was 2.37 trillion yuan, a slight decline from the previous trading day's 2.53 trillion yuan [1] Important Information - Open market: On Monday, the central bank conducted 137.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with no reverse repurchase due on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 137.8 billion yuan [1] - Funding market: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, up from 1.39% the previous day [1] - Cash bond market: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds generally increased compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 1.00 BP to 1.49%, the 5 - year rose 1.89 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year rose 1.77 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year rose 4.01 BP to 2.27% [1] - China's exports in September (in US dollars) increased 8.3% year - on - year (previous value: 4.4%); imports increased 7.4% (previous value: 1.3%); the trade surplus was 90.45 billion US dollars (previous value: 102.33 billion US dollars) [1] Market Logic - China's September exports in US dollars increased 8.3% year - on - year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The market's reaction to the tariff information is generally optimistic, believing that the probability of a compromise between China and the US in the future is relatively high, leading to a narrowing decline in the stock market and a corresponding correction in the bond market. Overnight US stocks also rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recovering half of Friday's losses [1] Trading Strategy - For trading - type investments, conduct band operations [2]