甲醇早报：偏空因素主导，甲醇震荡偏弱-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of methanol 2601 are all weak. The overall view is that it will run weakly, with bearish factors dominating [1][5]. - Due to the US updating the sanctions list and including 9 ships responsible for Iranian methanol transportation to China in the SDN list, the supply pressure of methanol in China is expected to ease, which boosts the methanol price to repair. However, facing the medium - term downward trend suppression and with weak industrial factors, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Performance - Last Thursday, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract started a rebound after reaching a low of 2276 yuan/ton. This week, it continued the rebound trend and recovered short - term moving averages. But on Monday night, it closed slightly lower by 0.26% to 2329 yuan/ton [5]. Market Logic - The inclusion of 9 ships in the SDN list disrupts the import expectation, reducing the supply pressure of methanol in China and driving the price to repair [5]. - The industrial factors are weak, and the medium - term downward trend suppresses the price, leading to the expected weakly oscillating trend [5].