煤焦早报：多空交织，煤焦区间震荡-20251014

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No specific report industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Group 2: Core Views - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "decline", and the reference view is "oscillation thinking". The core logic is that the upward driving force is weak, and coking coal will oscillate weakly [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation thinking". The core logic is that there are both long and short factors, and coke will oscillate within a range [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - As of the week of October 10, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 752,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14,000 tons. During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, 10 road ports such as Erenhot and Ganqimaodu between China and Mongolia were closed for 7 days and gradually resumed after the festival. The total daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.125 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. After the holiday, the coking coal inventory of downstream enterprises decreased significantly. As of the week of October 10, the coal inventory of independent coking plants was 9.5906 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 786,500 tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8113 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,300 tons. Due to insufficient fundamental support and the reappearance of US tariff pressure, coking coal futures are expected to operate weakly and oscillate in the short term [5]. Coke (J) - According to Mysteel statistics, as of the week of October 10, the total daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.125 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4154 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 tons, and the profit rate of steel mills was 56.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. Coke's fundamental upward driving force is insufficient, and there is short - term policy risk as Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China. Coke futures are expected to maintain oscillation in the short term [7].