国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251014

Report Overview - Report Date: October 14, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report on Energy and Chemicals by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the fundamentals and market dynamics of each commodity [2][10][11] 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Mid - term trend is weak. Suggest long PXN positions due to potential PX supply - demand gap and expected expansion of polyester industry chain profits [2][10] - PTA: Hold 1 - 5 reverse spreads. Unilateral trend is weak due to weak cost support and sufficient supply [2][10] - MEG: Unilateral trend is weak under the pattern of oversupply. Overall load is expected to adjust slightly, and attention should be paid to the impact of policies on demand [2][11] Rubber - Rubber: Oscillating weakly. Market shows a decline in futures prices and a decrease in inventory in Qingdao area [2][13][15] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic Rubber: Weak operation. Fundamental pressure increases due to high supply, and macro - trade conflicts may also affect cost and demand expectations [2][18] Asphalt - Asphalt: Weakly oscillating. Production increases, factory inventory rises, and social inventory decreases [2][20][31] LLDPE, PP, PVC - LLDPE: Trend is weak. Market is affected by tariff policies, with high inventory pressure and limited cost support from crude oil [2][32][33] - PP: Trend remains weak. Suppressed by factors such as trade wars and high supply [2][36][37] - PVC: Trend is weak. High - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports may face policy disturbances [2][74][75] Others - Caustic Soda: Do not chase short positions in the short term. Supply pressure is not large, and demand in some areas is expected to drive inventory reduction [40][42] - Pulp: Oscillating. Supply pressure persists, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [45][48] - Glass: Original sheet prices are stable. Market demand is weak, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low [50][51] - Methanol: Short - term oscillation. Spot prices show some increases, and port inventory has accumulated after the holiday [53][56] - Urea: Short - term oscillating. Inventory increased during the National Day, and spot trading improved recently, but the medium - term trend remains weak [58][59][60] - Styrene: Stop loss on short positions. Short - term oscillation is expected, and the expectation of inventory accumulation turns to de - stocking in October [61][62] - Soda Ash: Spot market changes little. Supply is at a high level, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [63][64] - LPG: Resistant to decline at low levels and rebounded at night. Attention should be paid to the changes in CP prices and device maintenance plans [66][71] - Propylene: Demand weakens, and short - term weak operation is expected [67] - Fuel Oil: Oscillating and weak in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil shows a slight decline at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur spot is narrowing [77] - Container Freight Index (European Line): May oscillate strongly. Market conditions are affected by factors such as freight rates and shipping capacity [79]