橡胶利空尚未兑现，但市场情绪维持偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating" for some and "oscillating weakly" for others [5][6][7][8][9][11][13][14][15][17][18][20] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various agricultural products. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some products facing downward pressure while others are in a state of oscillation. The macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and policy factors all have an impact on the market [1][5][6][7][8][9][11][13][14][15][17][18][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook for Each Product - Oils and Fats: Concerned about the effectiveness of the lower technical support. Due to the pessimistic outlook for US soybean export demand, the market is in an oscillating and downward - adjusting state. Palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory, while domestic soybean oil inventory may peak and decline, and rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decrease. Overall, the oils and fats market may continue to oscillate and consolidate [5] - Protein Meal: The sentiment boost is limited, and the market continues to oscillate at a low level. US soybeans are facing challenges in exports, and the domestic supply pressure is large in the short - term, but the demand may increase steadily in the long - term [5][6] - Corn/Starch: With the new grain selling pressure coming, the spot price drives the futures price to decline significantly. In the short - term, the market needs to deal with the new grain listing pressure, and in the long - term, it may show a pattern of short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7] - Pigs: The planned slaughter volume in October increases, and the pig price is under pressure. In the short - term, the supply pressure increases, and in the long - term, if the capacity reduction is implemented, the supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [8] - Natural Rubber: The negative factors have not been realized, but the market sentiment remains weak. The futures price may have over - declined due to sentiment. NR may show a relatively strong performance in the near - term. In the short - term, it can be considered from a long - bias perspective of oversold rebound, but the increase range is limited [1][9][11] - Synthetic Rubber: The raw material has weakened significantly, and the futures price has dropped sharply. The high production volume and high inventory are the main pressures, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [13] - Cotton: The decline of cotton price has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. Based on the expected increase in production, the cotton price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [14] - Sugar: Both domestic and international sugar prices have weakened. In the medium - and long - term, the sugar market is expected to be in a bearish pattern due to the expected increase in global supply [15] - Pulp: The game of the virtual - to - real ratio may lead to intraday fluctuations, but the effectiveness needs to be observed. The high supply and the issue of birch pulp warehouse receipts are the main downward drivers [17] - Double - Glued Paper: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. The market supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and the price may decline slightly after the festival [18] - Logs: The peak season is not prosperous, and the logs oscillate weakly. The weak demand and high inventory are the main factors affecting the market [20] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, double - glued paper, and logs, but does not provide specific data analysis content [22][54][67][113][126][140][163] 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards, including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [175]