Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Copper [1] Report Date - October 14, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoint - The expected tight supply and demand of copper concentrates support copper prices. The Fed's expected interest rate cut and fiscal easing in many countries, along with production disruptions in overseas copper mines, are likely to drive up copper prices. However, concerns about the potential easing of Sino-US trade conflicts may disrupt the upward rhythm of Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices fall [3]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - Spread Analysis: - Shanghai copper basis is negative and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is positive and also within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper basis and monthly spreads [9]. - LME copper (0 - 3) contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range, (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and at a relatively high level. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [10]. - COMEX copper near - far month contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range; LME copper and Shanghai copper spread is negative and within a reasonable range, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper spread is positive and within a reasonable range, COMEX copper and LME copper spread is negative and within a reasonable range [12]. - Inventory Analysis: - China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared with last week [3][20]. - The closing of the import window may limit the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper, causing the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area to increase compared with last week [20]. - The ratio of non - commercial long - short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month [21]. Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - Copper Concentrate: - China's port copper concentrate inventory increased compared with last week. The accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia may reduce domestic copper concentrate production and imports in October, with the China copper concentrate import index being negative and rising compared with last week [28][30]. - The positive domestic refined - scrap copper price difference may boost the economy of scrap copper. However, due to export restrictions in Europe and uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations, domestic scrap copper production may increase in October while imports may decrease, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation [31][33]. - Crude Copper and Anode Plate: - Domestic crude copper production and imports in October may decrease month - on - month. The start - up rate of China's scrap - produced anode plate weekly capacity increased compared with last week, and the processing fee for anode plates increased [34][37][39]. - Electrolytic Copper: - Domestic electrolytic copper production in October may decrease month - on - month. Due to production cuts in Congo and Zambia and maintenance plans in Japan, domestic electrolytic copper imports in October may also decrease month - on - month [40][42]. Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - Copper Rod: - The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined (recycled) copper rods decreased compared with last week. The processing fees for power and enameled wire - used refined copper rods in East China decreased, and the raw material and finished product inventories of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises decreased [46][48]. - Copper Wire and Cable: - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable decreased compared with last week, and the raw material inventory decreased while the finished product inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable in October may increase month - on - month [59][61][66]. - Copper Enameled Wire: - The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wire in October may decrease month - on - month [63][65][66]. - Copper Plate and Strip: - The capacity utilization rate and production of China's copper plate and strip decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip in October may increase month - on - month [74][76][78]. - Copper Tube: - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tube decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper tube in October may decrease month - on - month [80][81][87]. - Brass Rod: - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate of brass rod in October may increase month - on - month [82][84][87]. - Copper Foil: - The AI - related HVLP ultra - low profile copper foil demand in the copper foil industry has increased significantly, but the capacity utilization rate of lithium - ion and electronic circuit copper foils in October may decrease or increase month - on - month [78].
铜精矿供需预期偏紧支撑铜价
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-10-14 02:31