甲醇：短期震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the short - term is "volatile" [1] Core View - The domestic methanol market performed well overall. With the sanctions event fermenting and uncertainties in the follow - up, along with the expected supply reduction from overseas gas restrictions in the medium - term, the port trading atmosphere was good and the basis continued to strengthen. The buying atmosphere in the mainland's main markets was also good, and new orders from production area enterprises were well - sold. Attention should be paid to the subsequent freight fluctuations and the impact of the sanctions event. After the festival, methanol port inventories accumulated, with different inventory situations in different regions [4] Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of methanol's 01 - contract was 2,342 yuan/ton (yesterday: 2,307 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton), the settlement price was 2,335 yuan/ton (yesterday: 2,295 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton), the trading volume was 1,262,936 lots (yesterday: 569,488 lots, up 693,448 lots), the open interest was 991,942 lots (yesterday: 1,001,498 lots, down 9,556 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 11,282 tons (yesterday: 11,382 tons, down 100 tons), and the trading volume was 2,948,666 ten - thousand yuan (yesterday: 1,307,252 ten - thousand yuan, up 1,641,415 ten - thousand yuan). The basis was - 42 (yesterday: - 82, up 40), and the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 12 (yesterday: - 44, up 32). - In the spot market, the price in Jiangsu's ex - tank was 0 (unchanged), the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,060 yuan/ton (yesterday: 2,055 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton), the price in northern Shaanxi was 2,045 yuan/ton (yesterday: 2,050 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton), and the price in Shandong was 2,260 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] 2. Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2,167.17, up 11.49. The spot price in Taicang was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and the price in northern Inner Mongolia was 2,070 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. Among 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 12 cities saw price increases ranging from 2.5 to 65 yuan/ton [4] 3. Inventory Situation - After the festival, methanol port inventories accumulated. From September 25th to October 9th, 59.47 tons of foreign - owned vessels' visible unloading were counted. In Jiangsu, ship departures supported good提货, in Zhejiang, the rigid demand was stable, and concentrated unloading led to inventory accumulation. In South China, inventories continued to increase. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic vessels arrived at the port, but typhoon weather affected unloading and提货 in some periods, and holiday - related restrictions on提货 in mainstream warehouses led to inventory build - up. In Fujian, imported and domestic supplies were supplemented, and downstream consumption was relatively stable, with little inventory fluctuation [4] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]