碳酸锂日评:偏弱震荡-20251014
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-10-14 02:44

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On October 13, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures oscillated at a low level. The current market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. With both supply and demand strong, low inventory pressure upstream, weakened expectation of lithium ore supply contraction, peaking downstream stockpiling, and a possible arrival of the demand inflection point, the lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is necessary to observe the situation after Jiangxi's mining end submits the output report. The trading strategy suggests waiting and seeing [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - Prices: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared to previous periods. For example, the near - month contract closed at 71,800 yuan/ton on October 13, down 900 yuan from the previous period [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume was 282,178 hands on October 13, a decrease of 12,605 hands compared to the previous period, and the open interest was 207,463 hands, a decrease of 14,456 hands [1]. - Inventory: The inventory was 40,329 tons, a decrease of 5,951 tons [1]. - Spreads: The spreads between near - month and consecutive - one, consecutive - one and consecutive - two, and consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts changed. For example, the near - month - consecutive - one spread was - 480 yuan/ton on October 13 [1]. - Basis: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 820 yuan/ton on October 13, up 10 yuan [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - Lithium Ore: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other lithium ores decreased. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased by 10 US dollars/ton [1]. - Lithium Compounds: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other lithium compounds mostly decreased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) decreased by 450 yuan/ton [1]. - Other Products: The prices of products such as ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and cobalt acid lithium also showed various changes. For example, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) decreased by 110 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Inventory of Lithium - Related Products - SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The total inventory decreased. The inventory of smelters increased, while that of downstream and other sectors decreased. For example, the SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,024 tons in total [1]. 3.4 Company News - Zangge Mining: Its wholly - owned subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Lithium Fertilizer Co., Ltd., received a notice to resume lithium resource development and utilization activities and officially resumed production on October 11, 2025. The temporary shutdown lasted 87 days and is expected to have a small impact on the company's 2025 operating performance [1]. - Jinquan Co., Ltd.: The company's brine - type lithium project is in the trial - production stage, and the Argentine project is still in the exploration phase [1].