无惧特朗普关税威胁，铜价再度领涨基本金属

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The threat of Trump's tariffs has a negative impact, but the marginal negative impact is weakening. The potential incremental stimulus policy can partially offset the negative impact of the tariff policy. In the short - to - medium term, the supply and demand of basic metals are expected to tighten, which supports the prices. One can continue to cautiously focus on the opportunities of low - buying and long - holding for copper, aluminum, and tin. When the copper - to - aluminum ratio returns above 4, one can pay special attention to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price increase. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin is still subject to disturbances, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Viewpoint: Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices will decline in the short term. In the long term, copper prices may show a pattern of fluctuating upwards. - Analysis: Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting from November 1st, and the US government "shut down". In September, the output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month. As of October 13th, the copper inventory increased, and the strike risk of a copper mine increased. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the processing fees are at a low level. The cost of scrap copper recycling has increased, and the output of electrolytic copper in October is expected to decline. The terminal demand is in the peak season, and the downstream stocking willingness may increase [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Viewpoint: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price of alumina is under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. - Analysis: On October 13th, the price of alumina in various regions decreased or remained stable. Some refineries are close to the cost line, the operating capacity is high, and the inventory is strongly accumulating. The decline of ore long - term contracts in the fourth quarter is limited, which restricts the downward space. Potential production cuts and Guinea's disturbances will have a great impact on prices [8]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Viewpoint: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price fluctuates. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and in the medium term, the price center may move up. - Analysis: On October 13th, the average price of SMM AOO decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. Trump's tariff threat was later eased. Some replacement capacities are being put into production, the operating capacity and the start - up rate are high. The demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [9][10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Viewpoint: There is still cost support, and the price fluctuates. In the short term, one can participate in cross - variety arbitrage, and in the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - Analysis: On October 13th, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the spread between ADC12 and AOO increased. The supply start - up rate increased marginally, and the demand improved marginally. The 9 - month automobile sales were resilient, and the inventory continued to accumulate [11][13]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Viewpoint: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the zinc price fluctuates with non - ferrous metals. In the short term, it may fluctuate at a high level, and in the long term, there is still room for decline. - Analysis: On October 13th, the spot zinc price was at a discount. As of October 13th, the zinc inventory increased. A mine's production was delayed, and the zinc ore supply was temporarily loose. The refinery's profitability was good, and the demand was in the off - peak to peak season transition period [13][14]. 3.1.6 Lead - Viewpoint: The inventory decreased slightly, and the lead price fluctuated at a high level. - Analysis: On October 13th, the price of lead remained stable, and the inventory decreased. After the holiday, the production of recycled lead enterprises gradually recovered, and the demand for lead - acid batteries increased [15][17]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Viewpoint: The LME nickel inventory exceeded 240,000 tons, and the nickel price fluctuated widely. In the short term, it will fluctuate widely, and in the long term, it is to be observed. - Analysis: On October 13th, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic and global inventories increased. Indonesia plans to build a number of nickel - related projects, and a nickel - iron factory in Brazil increased its production capacity. The market sentiment dominates, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally [17][19]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Viewpoint: The nickel - iron price weakened, and the stainless - steel price decreased. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. - Analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel - iron price weakened, and the chromium price was relatively stable. The stainless - steel output increased in September, and the inventory accumulated [20][21]. 3.1.9 Tin - Viewpoint: There are still supply constraints, and the tin price fluctuates. - Analysis: On October 13th, the tin inventory decreased, and the price decreased. During the National Day, there were continuous supply disturbances in tin. The supply of refined tin in the world is tightening, and the domestic tin ore supply is tight. The processing fees of tin concentrate are at a low level, and the start - up rate of refined tin is low [22]. 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the sub - items of different varieties for monitoring, but no specific monitoring content is provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity 20 index was 2525.09, up 0.17%; the industrial products index was 2211.57, down 0.64% [149]. - Plate Index: The non - ferrous metals index on October 13th was 2448.42, with a daily decline of 0.80%, a 5 - day increase of 1.73%, a 1 - month increase of 2.55%, and an increase of 6.07% since the beginning of the year [151].