格林大华期货早盘提示：原木-20251014

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log in the agriculture, forestry, and livestock sector is moderately bullish [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic log market has shown a situation of stable supply and demand recently. The overall price trend is stable. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand shows a differentiated performance. As the peak - season demand is gradually released, the spot price has strong support, but the hedging pressure when the 11 - contract approaches the delivery month should be watched out for [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The log futures price declined. The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 803.0 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 2.19% [1] Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous week [1] - As of August 15, the weekly arrival volume of domestic softwood logs was 33.9 million cubic meters, a decrease of 16.65 million cubic meters from the previous week [1] - The average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 6.33 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.09 million cubic meters from the previous week [1] Market Logic - The domestic log market shows a stable supply - demand situation. The prices in Shandong and Jiangsu are stable. The supply is expected to increase to 55.05 million cubic meters due to holiday factors. The demand is differentiated: the daily shipment in Shandong has slightly decreased, and the purchase volume in Jiangsu has declined. The inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 6.97 million cubic meters, while that in Shandong increased slightly by 0.8 million cubic meters [1] Trading Strategy - The log 11 - contract will fluctuate [1]