铅锌日评：或有承压-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply - tight pattern of lead has improved, with some demand released in advance in September, leading to significant pressure on lead ingot inventory accumulation and potential price pressure. For zinc, although the overseas LME zinc inventory is at an absolute low and the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens to support zinc prices, the domestic zinc fundamentals remain in a weak state of strong supply and weak demand, and zinc prices may also face pressure. The trading strategy for both lead and zinc is to wait and see [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained flat compared to the previous day, while the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract decreased by 0.26% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.04%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 83.41%, and the open interest decreased by 1.80%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.66%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio increased by 0.79% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, without a substantial impact on smelter operations. Some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, with slight fluctuations in primary lead production. In the secondary lead sector, smelters that had previously undergone maintenance have gradually resumed production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market shows no significant improvement, the peak - season effect is not evident, and dealers mainly focus on inventory digestion. Lead ingot inventory accumulation pressure is large [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract decreased by 0.07%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.92%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 1.47%, and the open interest decreased by 4.54%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.70%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.98% [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees may still decline in October. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with a clear trend of increased production. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement, but the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio continues to decline [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1] Industry News - The Alxa League Natural Resources Bureau released a public notice on the negotiated transfer of exploration rights for the upper and deep parts of the Bayan Xibie Lead - Zinc Mine in Alxa Left Banner. The assignee is Alxa League Bayan Xibie Mining Co., Ltd., and the exploration minerals are lead and zinc. The public notice period is from October 10 to October 22, 2025 [1]. - A lead - zinc mine in Sichuan is expected to start trial production in October and its concentrator is expected to officially start operation in November, followed by market quotation and trading activities [1]. - China Railway Resources Group Co., Ltd. announced the winning bidder for the technical service of a lead - zinc mine project in Kazakhstan, which is China Nerin Engineering Co., Ltd. [1]