格林大华期货早盘提示：棉花-20251014

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bearish [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - Affected by the external environment, ICE cotton futures closed lower, with the main 12 - month contract settling at 63.59 cents, a decline of 0.39%. The purchase price of seed cotton remains cautious, with the mainstream price at 6.1 - 6.2 yuan per kilogram. Downstream textile enterprises maintain normal operation, but the orders in the peak season are insufficient. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of oscillating and bottom - building [1] 3) Summary by Related Content [Market Review] - ICE December contract settled at 63.59, down 25 points; March at 65.26, down 34 points; May at 66.56, down 33 points, with about 44,000 contracts traded. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 424,737 contracts, with an open interest of 839,493 contracts. The settlement prices of January, May, and September contracts were 13,285 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton), 13,325 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), and 13,510 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton) respectively compared to the previous day [1] [Important Information] - On October 11, in Kashgar, Xinjiang, the basis of hand - picked new cotton of Double 29 quality with less than 1.7% impurity for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was around 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14,500 - 14,550 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous day [1] - According to US Department of Commerce data, in August 2025, US retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories (seasonally adjusted) were $27.183 billion, an 8.27% year - on - year increase (the adjusted figure in the same period last year was $25.106 billion) and a 1.02% month - on - month increase (last month was $26.908 billion) [1] - The warm and dry weather in the southwestern and south - central cotton regions of the US promotes harvesting, while thunderstorms in the southeastern cotton region pose a threat to the quality of boll opening [1] - As of September 25, according to local Brazilian industry institutions, the cotton picking progress in Brazil was about 99.7%, and the processing progress was 46% [1] - On October 11, the spot price of cotton yarn was stable. According to feedback from inland textile enterprises, new orders are generally sluggish in October, and there is always downward pressure on cotton yarn prices. Enterprises have difficulty making profits, so the cotton consumption is in a state of contraction [1] [Market Logic] - Due to external environmental impacts, ICE US cotton futures closed lower. The purchase price of seed cotton is cautious, and although downstream textile enterprises maintain normal operation, the peak - season orders are insufficient, resulting in Zhengzhou cotton oscillating and building a bottom [1] [Trading Strategy] - Hold the previous at - the - money straddle options of the 01 contract [1]