20251014申万期货有色金属基差日报：可能偏强铜：锌：跟随铜价走势-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the strong side, and zinc prices will follow the trend of copper prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed up 1.64%. Since the beginning of the year, the supply of concentrate has remained tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output has continued to grow at a high rate. Grid investment has continued positive growth, power source investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales have shown positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has shown negative growth, and the real estate market has remained weak. The Indonesian mine accident will probably lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices. After the Sino - US trade confrontation, market sentiment has gradually stabilized. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed up 0.13%. In the short term, the processing fees for zinc concentrates have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets, as counted by the China Iron and Steel Association, has increased on a weekly basis. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales have shown positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has shown negative growth, and the real estate market has remained weak. Due to the different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but in the short term, it will follow the trend of copper prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - Domestic previous - day futures closing prices: copper at 85,000 yuan/ton, aluminum at 20,865 yuan/ton, zinc at 22,205 yuan/ton, nickel at 121,150 yuan/ton, lead at 17,100 yuan/ton, and tin at 281,930 yuan/ton [2]. - Domestic basis: copper at 45 yuan/ton, aluminum at - 50 yuan/ton, zinc at - 55 yuan/ton, nickel at - 1,330 yuan/ton, lead at - 195 yuan/ton, and tin at 7,210 yuan/ton [2]. - Previous - day LME 3 - month closing prices: copper at 10,802 dollars/ton, aluminum at 2,757 dollars/ton, zinc at 3,012 dollars/ton, nickel at 15,180 dollars/ton, lead at 1,994 dollars/ton, and tin at 35,750 dollars/ton [2]. - LME spot premium/discount: copper at 226.78 dollars/ton, aluminum at 21.25 dollars/ton, zinc at 201.60 dollars/ton, nickel at - 202.77 dollars/ton, lead at - 45.35 dollars/ton, and tin at - 105.99 dollars/ton [2][3]. - LME inventory: copper at 139,400 tons, aluminum at 508,825 tons, zinc at 37,950 tons, nickel at 237,378 tons, lead at 237,000 tons, and tin at 2,410 tons [2]. - LME inventory daily change: copper at - 75 tons, aluminum at 225 tons, zinc at - 300 tons, nickel at 486 tons, lead at - 450 tons, and tin at 20 tons [2].