申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20251014

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures are operating weakly. In the spot market, prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remain stable. In the medium - term, the market focuses on actual demand fulfillment and potential industrial policy changes in the polyolefin supply side in the fourth quarter. After being pressured by Sino - US game over the weekend, crude oil rebounded due to some loose news. It may have a positive impact on chemicals. In the short - term, polyolefin prices fluctuate passively with the cost, and market sentiment is cautious [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price Changes: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6983, 7029, and 7071 respectively, with price drops of - 54, - 37, and - 53 and declines of - 0.77%, - 0.52%, and - 0.74% compared to the day before. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6693, 6748, and 6746 respectively, with price drops of - 29, - 14, and - 36 and declines of - 0.43%, - 0.21%, and - 0.53% [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: LL's trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 280022, 24605, and 231 respectively, and open interests were 564785, 59115, and 426 respectively, with open interest changes of 6917, 5830, and - 1. PP's trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 369442, 45498, and 698 respectively, and open interests were 643294, 109256, and 3183 respectively, with open interest changes of 8393, 4, and 408 [2] - Spreads: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 46, - 42, and 88 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 29, - 58, and 87. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 55, 2, and 53 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 40, - 20, and 60 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2344 yuan/ton, 6210 yuan/ton, 527 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6560 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2310 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, 532 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6590 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - Mid - stream Spot Market: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7050 - 7550, 7000 - 7250, and 7200 - 7650 respectively. The previous price ranges were 8100 - 8250, 7050 - 7600, and 7000 - 7250. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6550 - 6700, 6550 - 6650, and 6550 - 6650 respectively. The previous price ranges were 7200 - 7650, 6600 - 6700, and 6550 - 6700 [2] News - On Monday (October 13), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.49 per barrel, up $0.59 or 1.00% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59 - $60.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.32 per barrel, up $0.59 or 0.94% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.90 - $63.95 [2]