期货市场交易指引2025年10月14日-20251014

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro - Finance: Index futures are recommended to be bought on dips in the medium - long term; Treasury bonds are advised to be kept under observation [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to be kept under observation [1][8][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended to be held long on dips; Aluminum is advised to set up long positions on pullbacks; Nickel is recommended to be kept under observation or shorted on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold is to be bought on dips; Silver is for range trading [1][11][13][18] - Energy Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to oscillate; Polyolefins are to have wide - range oscillations; Soda ash 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [1][21][23][24][31] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is for narrow - range oscillations; Apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate strongly [1][33][35][36] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs are to be shorted on rallies; Eggs are to be shorted on rallies; Corn is for wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is for low - level oscillations; Oils are expected to have limited pullbacks [1][38][40][44][45][50] Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as macro - policies, international trade relations, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal factors. Different industries and varieties have different investment strategies based on their specific situations [5][8][11] Summaries by Categories Macro - Finance - Index Futures: On October 13, the A - share market opened low and closed high. The market may oscillate, but is optimistic in the medium - long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - Treasury Bonds: Treasury futures rebounded. The bond market may oscillate around the theme of Sino - US game, and it is advisable to keep under observation [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Affected by rainfall and weak demand, the pit - mouth price shows a differentiated trend. There is an expected increase in demand for early heating, and it is for range trading [8] - Rebar: The price oscillated down on Monday. The static valuation is low, and the demand in October is to be focused on. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with a suggestion to go long around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - Glass: Some enterprises raised prices slightly, but the shipment was restricted. The supply increased, and the inventory rose. The demand is weak. It is advisable to keep under observation, focusing on the changes in Shahe production lines [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by Sino - US trade relations, the price may have high - level oscillations. The long - term supply - demand outlook is optimistic, and it is recommended to hold long on dips [11] - Aluminum: The bauxite price declined, the production capacity increased steadily, the demand is in the peak season, and the inventory accumulation is normal. It is advisable to set up long positions on pullbacks [13] - Nickel: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. The supply is in surplus in the medium - long term. It is recommended to keep under observation or short on rallies [18] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is warming up. It is for range trading, with a reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18] - Gold and Silver: Affected by US economic data and interest - rate cut expectations, they are expected to oscillate. It is advisable to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20] Energy Chemicals - PVC: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 pressure [21][22] - Caustic Soda: The supply is high, the demand is increasing marginally, and it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2380 - 2530 range [23][24] - Styrene: The cost - profit situation is not good, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly, with a focus on the 6600 - 6900 range [24][25] - Rubber: The supply is expected to increase, and the price may oscillate, with a focus on the 15,000 support [26][27] - Urea: The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, focusing on factors such as compound fertilizer production and exports [28] - Methanol: The supply is recovering, the demand from the main downstream is strong, and it is expected to oscillate [30] - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is large after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The PE 2601 and PP 2601 contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the 6900 and 6600 supports respectively [30][31] - Soda Ash: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak after the festival, and the inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and there is uncertainty in Sino - US relations. The market may oscillate with a bearish expectation [33][34] - PTA: The crude oil price is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the PTA is accumulating inventory. It is for narrow - range oscillations in the 4500 - 4750 range [34][35] - Apples: Affected by weather, the supply time of red apples is postponed. The quality is lower, and the price may oscillate strongly [35][36] - Jujubes: The sales during the National Day were flat. The new - season jujubes are about to be harvested, and the price may oscillate strongly [36] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The short - term price is under pressure, and the supply is large in the medium - long term. Different contracts have different strategies, such as reducing short positions for the 11 contract and short - selling for the 01, 03, 05 contracts in the long - term [38][39] - Eggs: The demand is weak after the festival, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term price may oscillate at a low level. The 11 - contract short positions can be partially closed, and the 12 and 01 contracts are to wait for rallies to short - sell [40][41][42] - Corn: The new corn is on the market, and the supply is sufficient in the short term. The demand is weak, and the price may oscillate. The 11 - contract is for a short - selling strategy, and an attention is to be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - Soybean Meal: Affected by the harvest pressure and slow exports of US soybeans, the domestic soybean meal may oscillate at a low level, focusing on the support of 2900 - 2930 for the M2601 contract [45] - Oils: The short - term pullback is limited. The 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil should focus on the support levels of 8200 - 8250, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively, with a strategy of going long after the pullback [50]