申银万国期货早间策略-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core View of the Report - After experiencing high - level fluctuations in September, the stock index is likely to enter a direction - selection phase again, with a high probability of maintaining a bullish trend. In the short term, due to the impact of Sino - US trade, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase. From a capital perspective, the domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents are likely to increase their allocation of equity assets. Additionally, with the Fed's interest rate cuts and the appreciation of the RMB, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the expected increase in Q4 pro - growth policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4613.80, 4600.40, 4592.20, and 4571.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4585.60, 4572.40, 4562.60, and 4541.20 respectively, with declines of - 29.60, - 31.20, - 30.60, and - 30.00. The trading volumes were 44944.00, 9140.00, 97200.00, and 16995.00, and the open interests were 49745.00, 12664.00, 163856.00, and 57094.00, with changes of - 1285.00, 3532.00, 885.00, and 1646.00 respectively [1]. - IH Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts were 2976.00, 2973.60, 2975.80, and 2974.00, and the previous day's closing prices were 2966.20, 2962.60, 2961.60, and 2962.00, with declines of - 7.80, - 10.60, - 11.60, and - 10.60. The trading volumes were 19083.00, 3473.00, 44552.00, and 6422.00, and the open interests were 20024.00, 4171.00, 65965.00, and 13363.00, with changes of - 1061.00, 1081.00, - 1723.00, and - 517.00 respectively [1]. - IC Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts were 7382.00, 7311.20, 7266.00, and 7100.60, and the previous day's closing prices were 7350.00, 7278.00, 7231.00, and 7059.80, with declines of - 39.60, - 42.00, - 41.60, and - 49.40. The trading volumes were 42277.00, 11392.00, 101843.00, and 21216.00, and the open interests were 49319.00, 22616.00, 143038.00, and 52606.00, with changes of - 1211.00, 3775.00, 2838.00, and 2103.00 respectively [1]. - IM Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts were 7514.20, 7421.80, 7340.40, and 7120.00, and the previous day's closing prices were 7476.80, 7395.00, 7305.80, and 7077.60, with declines of - 42.80, - 32.40, - 40.60, and - 49.80. The trading volumes were 65213.00, 20080.00, 169889.00, and 31368.00, and the open interests were 68201.00, 28943.00, 190790.00, and 83351.00, with changes of - 2755.00, 6744.00, 7523.00, and 2846.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4593.98, 2967.21, 7376.56, and 7519.76 respectively, with declines of - 0.50, - 0.26, - 0.29, and - 0.19. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 315.01, 70.16, 258.03, and 288.40, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 7140.02, 1857.83, 4732.86, and 4709.91 respectively [1]. - Industry Indexes: Among different industries in the CSI 300 industry index, the raw materials industry had a growth rate of 1.93%, while industries such as optional consumption, pharmaceutical and healthcare, etc. had declines, with optional consumption at - 2.02%, pharmaceutical and healthcare at - 2.33% [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts Basis: The previous day's basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) against the CSI 300 were - 8.38, - 21.58, - 31.38, and - 52.78 respectively, compared to - 3.03, - 16.43, - 24.63, and - 45.03 two days ago [1]. - IH Contracts Basis: The previous day's basis of IH contracts against the SSE 50 were - 1.01, - 4.61, - 5.61, and - 5.21 respectively, compared to 1.15, - 1.25, 0.95, and - 0.85 two days ago [1]. - IC Contracts Basis: The previous day's basis of IC contracts against the CSI 500 were - 26.56, - 98.56, - 145.56, and - 316.76 respectively, compared to - 16.22, - 87.02, - 132.22, and - 297.62 two days ago [1]. - IM Contracts Basis: The previous day's basis of IM contracts against the CSI 1000 were - 42.96, - 124.76, - 213.96, and - 442.16 respectively, compared to - 19.62, - 112.02, - 193.42, and - 413.82 two days ago [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - Sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3889.50, 13231.47, 8189.82, and 3078.76 respectively, with declines of - 0.19%, - 0.93%, - 1.25%, and - 1.11% [1]. - Overseas Indexes: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25889.48, 48088.80, 6654.72, and 24387.93 respectively, with changes of - 1.52%, - 1.01%, 1.56%, and 0.60% [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China has officially implemented a special port - dues policy for US ships starting today. In September, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan (up 8.4%) and imports at 1.7 trillion yuan (up 7.5%), achieving year - on - year double - growth for four consecutive months. In the third quarter, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 6% year - on - year, achieving year - on - year growth for eight consecutive quarters. China's rare - earth exports in September were 4000.3 tons, showing a decline for the third consecutive month [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - Since 24:00 on October 13, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively. As of the end of June 2025, during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's shipbuilding industry had received 64.2% of global new ship orders, 15.1 percentage points higher than during the "13th Five - Year Plan" period, ranking first in the world for 16 consecutive years. In September, the retail sales of the national passenger - car market reached 2.241 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. From January to September this year, the State Grid completed fixed - asset investments of over 420 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%, and it is expected that the annual investment scale will exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time this year [2].