申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein Meal: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed higher. Tensions in Sino - US trade relations weakened the export prospects of US soybeans, depressing US soybean prices. Although the market strongly expects the US Department of Agriculture to lower the US soybean yield per unit in this month's USDA report, the report is postponed due to the US government shutdown, suppressing market trading. With US soybeans being harvested and listed, reduced export demand will continue to pressure US soybean prices, which are expected to be weak. In the domestic market, the previous valuation of Sino - US trade improvement will be revised upwards due to the renewed trade conflict. The expectation of tight supply in the later period and the expectation of tariff upgrades will boost the performance of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal [2]. - Oils and Fats: The night - session of oils and fats showed a strong performance. The MPOB released this month's supply - demand report. In September, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.841 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%; exports were 1.428 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.7%, basically in line with market expectations. As of the end of September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2.3609 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is higher than expected. Meanwhile, uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oils and fats market. However, in the medium to long term, the Southeast Asian production areas will enter the production - reduction season, and international biodiesel policies will continue to support the consumption demand for oils and fats [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8,268, 9,364, and 10,022 respectively, with changes of - 34, - 74, and - 39, and percentage changes of - 0.41%, - 0.78%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 2,932, 2,400, and 8,844 respectively, with changes of 10, - 58, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.34%, - 2.36%, and 0.29% [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 were - 320, - 538, and - 380 respectively, compared with previous values of - 296, - 574, and - 602. The current values of ratios - spreads like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 were - 74, 3, and 458 respectively, compared with previous values of - 85, 0, and 396 [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,473 ringgit/ton, 1,008 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 275 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 26, 1, 1, and - 1, and percentage changes of - 0.58%, 0.12%, 1.12%, and - 0.40% [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8,470 and 8,570 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.82% and - 0.81%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9,320 and 9,260 respectively, with percentage changes of - 2.10% and - 2.11%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10,270 and 10,270 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.96% and - 1.06% [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and other products were 202, etc. The current spot spreads such as the difference between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil was - 560, compared with a previous value of - 590 [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profits - The current values of import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 465, 29, etc., compared with previous values of - 60, - 210, etc [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and other products were 25,444, 1,500, etc., compared with previous values of 25,444, 1,570, etc [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - As of October 11, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 11.1%, compared with 8.2% last week, 9.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 16.9% [2]. - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) of the United States will release its September report on Thursday. Analysts expect the soybean crushing volume in September to be around 185 million to 190 million bushels, compared with 189.81 million bushels in August and 178.2 million bushels in the same period last year [2].