宏观周报：中国对部分原材料进行出口管制，美国拟加征关税表示抗议-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In August 2025, economic data generally declined and fell short of expectations, with economic growth slowing slightly. It is expected that in September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value and total retail sales of consumer goods may further decline slightly, while investment growth is expected to stabilize. In the fourth quarter, new incremental macro - policies may be introduced to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target of "around 5.0%" [18][19] - China imposed export controls on some raw materials such as rare earths on October 9, 2025. In response, the US announced on October 11 that it would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting from November 1, 2025 [3] - The US federal government shut down on October 1, 2025, which will cause direct losses to the US economy and affect the release of economic data [4][48] - In September 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable and appreciating trend. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, the RMB will continue the managed floating pattern [57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - Supply (Industrial Added Value): In August 2025, the year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 5.2%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate from January to August was 6.2%. The growth rate of industrial production slowed down [18] - Real Estate Data: From January to August 2025, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of commercial housing sales area and new construction area were negative, indicating a continued adjustment in the real estate market [12][18] - Fixed - Asset Investment: From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed - asset investment was 0.5%. Affected by factors such as the observation period of current policies and the real estate adjustment, the investment growth rate declined at a low level [18][19] - Demand (Social Retail Consumption): In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate from January to August was 4.6%. The growth rate of retail sales slowed down, but the growth rate of optional consumer goods outside the trade - in policy accelerated [18][19] - Business Climate Index: In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was strong, but the new order index increased less than in previous years. The non - manufacturing PMI declined, with the construction industry PMI remaining sluggish and the service industry PMI also falling [5] - Import and Export Data: In August 2025, export and import data showed a certain degree of decline. The export amount decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the import amount decreased by 2.6% year - on - year [12] 3.2 Financial Situation - Social Financing Data: In August 2025, the newly added social financing scale was 1434.8 billion yuan. The scale of RMB loans increased, while foreign currency loans, entrusted loans, and trust loans decreased [12] - Credit Loan Data: In August 2025, the newly added RMB loans were 1041.1 billion yuan. The newly added loans in the household sector and the corporate sector showed different trends [12] - Money Supply: At the end of August 2025, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 scissors gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest value since June 2021 [8] 3.3 Inflation Indicators - CPI: In August 2025, the CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. Food prices decreased, while core CPI continued to rise. The prices of gold and platinum jewelry, household appliances, and cultural and entertainment durable consumer goods increased year - on - year [9] - PPI: In August 2025, the PPI ended the continuous downward trend of the previous eight months. It was flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for the first time since March [9] 3.4 Overseas Macroeconomy - US Economy: The US federal government shut down on October 1, 2025, causing direct losses to the economy and affecting the release of economic data. In August 2025, the CPI and core CPI increased, and the market fully priced in the interest - rate cut expectation for the next week [4][48][49] - Eurozone Economy: In October 2025, the HICP and core HICP of the Eurozone increased slightly. The manufacturing PMI and service industry PMI showed different trends [16] 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rates: In September 2025, the RMB exchange rate appreciated steadily. The trend was driven by factors such as the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the support of the domestic economic fundamentals, and the management of market expectations by the central bank [57] - Exchange Rates: As of September 6, 2025, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB fluctuated slightly, and the on - shore and off - shore exchange rates were maintained in the range of 7.12 - 7.15, with a cumulative appreciation of about 0.5% compared with the high point in July [57]