Report Title - Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] Report Date - October 14, 2025 [5] Data Source - Clarksons, Wind [5] Core Viewpoints - In late September, shipping companies collectively cut prices to grab cargo, and freight rates dropped to $1300/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a $400/FEU increase for late October. However, in October, both supply and demand declined, and it is likely to return to the off - season market. Currently, the mainstream quotation range for late October is between $2000 - $2200. Subsequently, European routes will focus on price stabilization and support during the transition between off - and peak - seasons. Shipping companies' price increases may be difficult to implement, and it is necessary to closely monitor the implementation of price increases, peak - season cargo volume, capacity deployment, and shipping companies' attitude towards price support [8]. - The preliminary progress of the Gaza peace talks creates a theoretical possibility for the resumption of Red Sea shipping, but the shipping industry still needs to face "three hurdles": the stability of agreement implementation, the conditions for the Houthi armed forces to lift the blockade, and the sustainable guarantee of route safety. Before the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026, the market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and increasing bargaining power of shippers". The resumption of the Suez route will probably be carried out in a phased and verification - based manner, and the second quarter of next year will be the first substantial observation node [8]. Key Data Freight Rate Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFI Composite Index | 1115 | 1198 | -6.97% | | CCFI Index | 1087 | 1120 | -2.93% | | SCFI - US West | 1460 | 1636 | -10.76% | | SCFIS - US West | 862 | 876 | -1.60% | | SCFI - US East | 2385 | 2557 | -6.73% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 971 | 1052 | -7.70% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1031 | 1046 | -1.43% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 1485 | 1638 | -9.34% | [5] Futures Contracts Present Value, Previous Value, and Change Rate | Contract | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1268.0 | 1248.6 | 1.55% | | EC2608 | 1395.8 | 1393.6 | 0.16% | | EC2510 | 1129.4 | 1121.1 | 0.74% | | EC2512 | 1562.5 | 1571.0 | -0.54% | | EC5602 | 1359.9 | 1338.0 | 1.64% | | EC2604 | 1098.5 | 1069.0 | 2.76% | [5] Open Interest | Contract | Present Value | Previous Value | Change in Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2606 Open Interest | 1483 | 1516 | (33) | | EC2608 Open Interest | 1122 | 1041 | 81 | | EC2410 Open Interest | 16148 | 18352 | (2204) | | EC2412 Open Interest | 28771 | 28056 | 715 | | EC2602 Open Interest | 9376 | 9768 | (392) | | EC2604 Open Interest | 12825 | 12963 | (138) | [5] Monthly Spread | Spread | Present Value | Previous Value | Change in Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 - 12 | -433.1 | -449.9 | 16.8 | | 12 - 2 | 202.6 | 233.0 | (30.4) | | 12 - 4 | 464.0 | 502.0 | (38.0) | [5] Spot Prices - GEMINI: The average of the alliance is around 1500. Maersk's wk40 opening price is 1400, and HPL - SPOT is 150 [8]. - OA: The average of the alliance is around 1550. CMA is 1700 (off - line 1500), OOCL is 1600, and EMC is 1700 (off - line 1500) [8]. - PA: The average of the alliance is around 1400. ONE is 1600, HMM is 1600, and IYM is 1300 [8]. - MSC: Reported 1600 in October [8]. Strategies - Go for a long position in the 10 - 12 spread [9]
航运衍生品数据日报-20251014
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-10-14 05:08