航运日报：10月13日SCFIS公布，加沙停火协议签署-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 12 - month contract of container shipping index futures for European routes is expected to be volatile and bullish. The trading of the 12 - month contract focuses on the rhythm, including the expectation and actual implementation of price increases. The shipping companies will adjust supply to maintain high freight rates for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. However, the weak demand in the US line and potential ship transfer to the European line may put pressure on European line prices [7][10]. - For the October contract, the valuation is becoming clear. Attention should be paid to the actual cargo - collecting prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of the price increase in the second half of October [6]. - The 2026 annual contract may face valuation pressure due to potential resumption of shipping. Continuous tracking of the Palestine - Israel negotiation and the resumption of the Suez Canal is needed [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online Quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes and price increase plans for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam week 43 quote is 1095/1830; HPL's 10 - month second - half price is 1185/1935, and it plans to raise the price to 1200/2000 after October 15. Maersk plans to raise the price to 1625/2500 after November 3 [1]. - Geopolitical Aspect: The Houthi armed forces in Yemen said they would stop attacking Israeli and related ships in the Red Sea if Israel abides by the Gaza cease - fire agreement. But they will monitor Israel's compliance, and more intense attacks will be launched if Israel resumes military operations [3]. 2. Dynamic Supply - China - European Base Port Capacity: In October, the average weekly capacity for the remaining three weeks is 276,100 TEU. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity is 302,800 TEU, and in December, it is 287,700 TEU. There are 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November and 7 TBNs in December [4]. 3. Contract Analysis - October Contract: The settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13, 20, and 27. The current freight rate center in the first half of October is about 1400 US dollars/FEU. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of the price increase in the second half of October, with shipping companies trying to raise the price to 1800 - 2200 US dollars/FEU [6]. - December Contract: The trading focuses on the rhythm. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for the next - year long - term contract negotiation. The 12 - month contract will first trade the price increase expectation, then the actual implementation, and repeat this process until delivery [7]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish [10]. - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [10].