农产品日报：现货价格整体上调，豆粕维持震荡-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn industries is "Cautiously Bearish" [4][7] 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of the US soybean and domestic bean meal markets is mainly fluctuating due to the lack of data updates caused by the US government shutdown. The domestic downstream soybean supply remains sufficient, and attention should be paid to policy changes. For corn, the overall production has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline after the new - season corn is listed. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of grain farmers and the acquisition situation [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2932 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2392 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.04%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - Import Data: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to September 2025, imports were 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% [2] - Sowing Progress: As of October 10, Brazilian farmers had sown 12.48% of the expected soybean planting area for 2025, significantly higher than the 5.28% at the same time last year [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The US soybean and domestic bean meal markets lack clear data guidance and are mainly fluctuating. The domestic downstream soybean supply is sufficient, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is going smoothly. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2092 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.55%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2401 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.27%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Production Forecast: The Rosario Grain Exchange expects Argentina's corn production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 61 million tons, higher than the previous year's 50 million tons. As of October 8, the corn sowing progress in Argentina was 25.6%, 7.9% faster than the same period last year [5] - Export Data: As of October 10, Ukraine's grain exports in the 2025/26 season were 7.19 million tons, lower than 11.739 million tons in the same period last year [5] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - In China, the new - season corn in some northeastern regions has started to be listed, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year. However, the overall production has increased, and the purchase price is expected to decline after the concentrated listing. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of grain farmers and the acquisition situation [6] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]