黑色建材日报：下游需求偏弱，玻璃大幅下跌-20251014

General Overview - The report focuses on the market analysis and strategies of glass, soda ash, and ferrosilicon alloys (silicomanganese and ferrosilicon) in the black building materials sector [1][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report Core Views - The glass market is characterized by weak downstream demand, ample supply, and high inventory reduction pressure, with prices at a low level and potential short - selling opportunities at high levels [1] - The soda ash market has persistent supply - demand contradictions, increasing supply pressure, and relatively stable demand, with significant inventory reduction pressure [1] - The silicomanganese market shows increased enterprise losses, reduced production and operating rates, while downstream demand maintains resilience, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector [3] - The ferrosilicon market has weak production expansion motivation due to compressed steel mill profits, and its supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with prices also expected to follow the sector's fluctuations [3] Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The glass futures market dropped significantly yesterday, and downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for immediate needs. The market has a situation of ample supply, weak demand, and high inventory reduction pressure. Prices are at a low level, and external macro - disturbances may cause price rebounds. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high levels and subsequent changes in production lines [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market opened lower and fluctuated weakly yesterday, and downstream procurement was mainly for immediate needs. Supply - demand contradictions persist, supply pressure continues to increase, and inventory reduction pressure is large. Attention should be paid to supply changes and downstream demand [1] Ferrosilicon Alloys - Silicomanganese: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures main contract closed at 5746 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Steel mills are eager to lower prices, and factory production is in a loss state. Enterprises' losses have increased, production and operating rates have declined, while downstream demand maintains resilience. Considering the futures discount to the spot, prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector. Attention should be paid to changes in manganese ore cost support and regional policies [3] - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures showed a weak - oscillating trend, and the main contract closed at 5406 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market sentiment has deteriorated, and the trading atmosphere needs to be improved. With the continuous compression of steel mill profits, the motivation for production expansion is insufficient, while downstream demand maintains resilience. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to cost support, electricity price changes, and industrial policies [3] Strategies - Glass: The strategy is to expect a weak - oscillating trend [2] - Soda Ash: The strategy is to expect an oscillating trend [2] - Silicomanganese: The strategy is to expect an oscillating trend [4] - Ferrosilicon: The strategy is to expect an oscillating trend [4] - Cross - period and Cross - variety: No cross - period or cross - variety strategies were provided [2]