中辉能化观点-20251014

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish in the short - term, long - term bullish potential [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish continuation [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [5] Core Views - The core driver of the energy and chemical market is supply - demand imbalance, with supply generally exceeding demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. However, factors such as cost support, seasonal demand, and macro - policies also affect price trends [2][3][5] - In the short term, most products are expected to continue their weak trends, but some products with low valuations have limited downward space [2][3][5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices showed a mixed trend, with WTI up 0.29%, Brent up 0.94%, and SC down 2.68% [6] - Basic Logic: Trump's actions released macro - risks, but the core driver is supply surplus in the off - season, and oil prices are likely to be suppressed below $60 [7] - Fundamentals: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November; US oil rig count decreased; Russian exports are stable. Demand is expected to grow moderately in the future, and US commercial crude inventories increased [8] - Strategy: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the $60 shale oil break - even point [9] LPG - Market Performance: The PG main contract closed at 4063 yuan/ton on October 10, with a 0.37% decline [12] - Basic Logic: The decline in oil prices and Saudi's CP price cut put pressure on LPG. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand has a slight recovery [13] - Strategy: Hold short positions as the trend follows oil prices [14] L - Market Performance: The L2601 contract closed at 6983 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan [18] - Basic Logic: Social inventory increased, and it will follow cost fluctuations. Supply is in a loose pattern, but low valuations and seasonal demand limit the downward space [19] - Strategy: The industry can hedge at high prices due to the contango structure [19] PP - Market Performance: The PP2601 contract closed at 6693 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [23] - Basic Logic: After - holiday inventory accumulation exceeds the seasonal norm, and supply - demand remains loose. It will follow cost fluctuations and face de - stocking pressure [24] - Strategy: The industry can hedge at high prices due to the contango structure [24] PVC - Market Performance: The V2601 contract closed at 4721 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [27] - Basic Logic: Cost support weakens, and the chemical sector declines together. Inventory accumulates, but low valuations limit further price drops [28] - Strategy: The market will continue to explore the bottom, but be cautious about short - selling [28] PX - Market Performance: On October 10, the PX spot price was 6618 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [31] - Basic Logic: Supply and demand are in a tight - balance but expected to be loose. PXN and PX - MX are relatively high. Macro factors put pressure on prices [32] - Strategy: Close short positions at low valuations, sell call options, and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [33] PTA - Market Performance: On October 10, the PTA spot price in East China was 4485 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [35] - Basic Logic: Supply load increases, demand has a "Silver October" expectation, but cost support weakens. Supply - demand is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [36] - Strategy: Close short positions at low valuations and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [37] MEG - Market Performance: On October 10, the East China MEG spot price was 4190 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [39] - Basic Logic: Domestic device load increases, overseas devices change little. Demand improves slightly, but inventory accumulates. Cost support weakens [40] - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [41] Methanol - Market Performance: On October 10, the East China methanol spot price was 2245 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [44] - Basic Logic: Sino - US trade frictions and tariff policies are short - term negatives. Supply pressure is large, but demand improves slightly. Cost support stabilizes [45] - Strategy: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [47] Urea - Market Performance: On October 10, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [49] - Basic Logic: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. Inventory accumulates, but cost support exists [50] - Strategy: The recent Indian tender has limited positive effects. Look for long - term light - position long - entry opportunities at low prices [52] Natural Gas - Basic Logic: Supply is sufficient, and gas prices decline. Although the increase in drilling rigs and seasonal demand support prices, macro - risks put pressure on them [5] Asphalt - Basic Logic: Cost support weakens, supply - demand is loose, and valuations are high. It is recommended to hold short positions [5] Glass - Basic Logic: Spot prices decline, inventory increases, and demand is weak. Supply is under pressure. Short - sell based on the 5 - day moving average [5] Soda Ash - Basic Logic: Spot prices decline slightly, inventory increases, and demand improves slightly. Supply may decrease slightly. Hedge at high prices and look for long - short spread opportunities [5]