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新能源及有色金属日报：冶炼利润收窄出口窗口打开，锌在发生边际变化-20251014
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-14 05:18

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The domestic supply pressure remains as the domestic smelting profit narrows but does not affect the smelting seasonality. The opening of the export window reverses the short - allocation logic marginally, strengthening the linkage between the Shanghai zinc price and overseas macro factors. Although there are short - term fluctuations due to tariff trade wars, there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the long - term. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $100.45 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,200 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton, closed at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 177,344 lots, and the open interest was 101,699 lots. The highest price was 22,450 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,100 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 13, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,475 tons, a change of - 475 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - The domestic concentrate TC and imported TC continue to diverge, with the domestic concentrate TC declining. The opening of the export window reverses the short - allocation logic marginally. The LME inventory has fallen below 38,000 tons, and the overseas premium continues to strengthen. Although tariff trade wars cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of tariffs. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]