Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [6]. - The investment rating for BR is neutral [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, after the reduction of rainfall in major production areas at home and abroad, the output is gradually increasing, and the domestic raw material prices are falling. The raw material prices in Thailand remain relatively firm. The overall supply - demand in China is gradually turning to a looser pattern, and the inventory depletion is expected to slow down or even accumulate again. However, the current valuations of RU and NR in China are low, and the downside space is expected to be limited [6]. - For BR, there are still maintenance plans for domestic BR plants in October, and the supply side still has support. The demand for raw materials will slow down this week, but the rigid demand remains due to the rising operating rate of tire factories. The overall operating rate of BR this year is still at a high level, and the supply is abundant. The supply - demand of BR is expected to be strong in both aspects, and the current high inventory may follow the price of upstream butadiene to decline slightly [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 375 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,040 yuan/ton, a change of - 310 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 10,920 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,450 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, a change of - 30 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,705 US dollars/ton, a change of - 35 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,200 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton. The market price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 10,950 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, hitting a new high in the same period in recent years [2]. - In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 742,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.75% and a year - on - year increase of 20.85%; the cumulative imports from January to September were 6.115 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.22% [2]. - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 6.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the exports reached 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2]. - From January to August, the exports of automobile tires were 5.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [3]. - According to QinRex's latest data, in the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared with the same period in 2024. Looking at the data for August alone, the exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3]. - From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new - energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new automobiles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports reached 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new - energy vehicle exports reached 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On October 13, 2025, the RU basis was - 640 yuan/ton (+ 125), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 490 yuan/ton (- 75), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,256 yuan/ton (- 121.88), the NR basis was 954.00 yuan/ton (+ 160.00); the whole latex was 14,300 yuan/ton (- 250), the mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton (- 300), the 3L spot was 15,000 yuan/ton (- 250). The STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (- 30), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 700 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,950 yuan/ton (- 300) [3]. - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 57.95 Thai baht/kg (- 1.16), the price of Thai glue was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.95 Thai baht/kg (- 0.55), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.15 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.75) [4]. - Operating Rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 41.53% (- 13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 42.15% (- 17.50%) [5]. - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 144,390 tons (- 5,420), and the NR futures inventory was 41,329 tons (- 705) [5]. BR - Spot and Spreads: On October 13, 2025, the BR basis was - 20 yuan/ton (+ 50), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (- 200), the quoted price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 11,200 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of Zhejiang Transfar's BR9000 was 10,950 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of Shandong private - owned BR was 10,700 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 2,064 yuan/ton (- 131) [5]. - Operating Rates: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 74.69% (+ 4.15%) [5]. - Inventories: The inventory of BR traders was 5,700 tons (+ 0), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 26,600 tons (+ 0) [5]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. The supply is expected to increase, and the overall supply - demand in China is turning to a looser pattern, but the low valuation limits the downside space [6]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. The supply side has support, and the supply - demand is expected to be strong in both aspects, but the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the butadiene price [6].
化工日报：青岛港口库存继续下降，但降幅放缓-20251014
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-14 05:19