聚烯烃日报：库存压力偏大，聚烯烃延续弱势-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The post - holiday inventory of major plastic producers has significantly accumulated, the cost support of crude oil for polyethylene has weakened, and new device production has increased supply pressure, driving the downward trend of polyolefins. The overall supply of PE and PP has increased significantly, while the downstream demand has fallen short of expectations, and the cost support has weakened, so the polyolefins continue to be weak [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,983 yuan/ton (-54), and that of the PP main contract is 6,693 yuan/ton (-29). The spot prices and basis of LL and PP in different regions have also changed [1] - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 83.9% (+1.9%), and the PP operating rate is 77.7% (+1.1%) [1] - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is 542.8 yuan/ton (+157.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 127.2 yuan/ton (+157.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 99.0 yuan/ton (-270.1) [1] - Import and Export: The LL import profit is 10.8 yuan/ton (+52.2), the PP import profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton (-73.5), and the PP export profit is 17.5 US dollars/ton (+9.1) [1] - Downstream Demand: The operating rates of PE downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film, and PP downstream industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP film have all increased to varying degrees [1] Market Analysis - PE: After the holiday, the inventory of major plastic producers has significantly accumulated. The decline of crude oil has weakened the cost support for polyethylene, and new device production has increased supply pressure. The supply has increased significantly, while the downstream demand has fallen short of expectations, and the cost support has weakened [2] - PP: After the holiday, the decline of PP is obvious, mainly dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and the significant decline of propane prices. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has fallen short of expectations, and the cost support is weak [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - hedge L; PP fluctuates weakly [4] - Inter - period: Reverse spread L01 - L05; Reverse spread PP01 - PP05 [4] - Inter - variety: Shrink PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]