铁矿石：供需矛盾偏弱，短期高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Iron ore's supply - demand contradiction is weak. The pressure of profit contraction in the industrial chain and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upward price ceiling, while the positive domestic macro - narrative provides support for the price floor. The price will fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures trading between 780 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 104 - 107 US dollars/ton. The recommended strategy is interval operation and covered call options [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments decreased slightly month - on - month. Rio Tinto's shipments from Australia dropped significantly, while those from Brazil were relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year, and the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. The daily average pig iron output this period was 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), higher than the average level in August (240.5). High pig iron production supported the iron ore price. The blast furnace operation rate in steel mills continued to decline slightly, with blast furnace restarts occurring in Hebei, and the blast furnaces under maintenance were mainly concentrated in Hebei, Northeast China, and Inner Mongolia for short - term maintenance, expected to resume production in two or three weeks [3] International Situation - Trump announced a 100% additional tariff on Chinese goods and export controls on key software and Boeing parts, but the possibility of the US raising tariffs by 100% is extremely low. It is expected that the two sides will restart communication on issues such as port service fees and rare - earth export controls, and related frictions may be alleviated periodically [3]