煤炭行业周报：中美两国博弈，煤炭板块韧性强-20251014

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector shows strong resilience amid the US-China geopolitical tensions, with significant impacts on market dynamics and pricing [3][4] - The supply of coal is expected to tighten due to continuous rainfall affecting production and seasonal demand increases, particularly for winter storage and non-electric coal [7][37] - The coal market has outperformed major indices, with coal stocks showing substantial gains compared to the broader market [4][37] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed mixed results, with coal stocks significantly outperforming indices. The coal sector saw a weekly increase of 4.41%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% [4][37] - All 30 listed coal companies experienced price increases, with New Dazhou A leading at 10.24% [4] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints from continuous rainfall and maintenance on major rail lines. The current capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 90.4% [7][8] - The port inventory of thermal coal has increased to 24.64 million tons, with a notable drop in both inflow and outflow due to adverse weather conditions [15][16] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are fluctuating, with supply remaining stable. The operating rate of sample mines during the holiday was 81.89%, indicating a slight decrease in production [20][21] - The demand for coking coal remains supported by high steel production levels, although profit margins for steel mills are under pressure [20][21] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels in the Bohai Rim ports has increased, with daily averages rising to 87 ships, indicating a robust shipping environment [29] Industry News - The Chinese government is focusing on the integration of artificial intelligence in coal production processes, which may enhance operational efficiency and safety [33] - Recent developments in international cooperation and strategic restructuring within the coal sector are expected to bolster competitiveness [33]