美国《大而美法案》与特朗普财政政策框架

Group 1: Key Points on the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) - The OBBBA is projected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade and raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion[3] - The bill primarily focuses on tax cuts, with the cost of personal and corporate tax reductions exceeding $4 trillion, while new tax cuts are estimated to cost only $664 billion[4] - The majority of new tax provisions are set to expire by 2028, leaving the deficit burden for future administrations[4] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Implications - By 2025, the U.S. public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to exceed 96%, with projections indicating a rise to 118.5% by 2035 due to the OBBBA[5] - The OBBBA's tax cuts are anticipated to stimulate GDP growth by 0.2% to 0.8% in the short term, but the long-term impact could shift to a negative effect of -0.3% to -0.5% on GDP[8] - The bill's implementation is likely to exacerbate income inequality, as the tax cuts disproportionately benefit high-income individuals[8] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - The increase in debt supply from the OBBBA may lead to higher long-term bond yields and increased risk premiums, potentially crowding out private investment[9] - The short-term benefits of tax cuts may support equity markets, but long-term concerns about fiscal deficits and inflation from tariffs could create volatility[9] - The political landscape surrounding the OBBBA may lead to further government shutdowns, reflecting ongoing fiscal uncertainties[9]