尿素期货日报-20251014

Report Overview - Report Date: October 10, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Urea - Researcher: He Ning [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The current urea market has weak supply and demand with prominent supply pressure. Affected by continuous rainfall, industrial and agricultural demand is weak, enterprise shipments are poor, and inventory continues to accumulate. Although the daily output and operating rate have slightly declined, the daily output of 199,400 tons is still at a high level, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may continue to be weak [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On October 10, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated and declined. The closing price was 1,597 yuan/ton, the highest was 1,614 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1,593 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 161,000 lots, a decrease of 83,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 339,000 lots, an increase of 72,000 lots from the previous day [2] 3.1.2 Variety Price - Urea 2510: The latest price was 1,500 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or 1.06%. The open interest was 2,610 lots, a decrease of 125 lots, and the trading volume was 315 lots [6] - Urea 2511: The latest price was 1,573 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 1.26%. The open interest was 20,231 lots, a decrease of 780 lots, and the trading volume was 6,130 lots [6] - Urea 2601 M: The latest price was 1,597 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or 1.36%. The open interest was 338,864 lots, an increase of 28,175 lots, and the trading volume was 161,077 lots [6] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of urea in major domestic regions remained generally stable, with slight differences in some areas due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1,580 yuan/ton (basis - 17 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1,510 yuan/ton (basis - 87 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1,500 yuan/ton (basis - 97 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1,610 yuan/ton (basis 13 yuan/ton) [7] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industrial Information - Demand: Affected by continuous rainfall in many places, the demand for urea in the industrial and agricultural fields has weakened. Most enterprises' inventories are overstocked as product shipments and flows are not as expected [8][9] - Supply: The domestic urea supply pressure is large, and the problem of weak domestic demand is still prominent. Although the daily output level and operating rate have slightly declined recently, they are still at a relatively high level, with the daily output of the urea industry at 199,400 tons. It is expected that the inventory of upstream production enterprises will continue to accumulate, and the market pressure will be large in the near future [9] 3.4 Market Outlook - The short - term urea futures market may maintain a weak operation due to the current supply - demand imbalance and supply pressure in the urea market [10]