化工日报：主港延续累库，EG偏弱运行-20251014

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The main port of ethylene glycol (EG) continues to accumulate inventory, and EG is operating weakly. The spot price of EG in the East China market increased by 2.65% compared to the previous trading day, and the futures price also slightly increased [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic EG load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas EG supply. On the demand side, the demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The EG balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has rebounded after hitting the bottom [2]. - The strategy includes: cautiously short - selling on rallies for single - side trading; conducting an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 for inter - period trading; and no strategy for inter - variety trading [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,111 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton, +0.27% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,178 yuan/ton (up 108 yuan/ton, +2.65% compared to the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 60 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - gas - based EG was - 527 yuan/ton (down 135 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Spread No specific data on international spreads are provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Due to pre - holiday stocking, the demand is slightly boosted, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the demand recovery [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 54.1 tons (up 3.4 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons (up 4.3 tons month - on - month). From October 9th to 12th, the actual arrival at the main port was 8.7 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 10.2 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary port is 2.5 tons, with the inventory likely to continue to accumulate [1].