宁证期货今日早评-20251014

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities and financial products, including expectations of price trends, investment opportunities, and risk factors for each item [1][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity 1. Coking Coal and Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke is 9 yuan/ton, with different regional profits. Coke supply is highly restricted, demand is supported by high - level molten iron, and the fundamentals are healthy. After the festival, coke enterprises' raw material replenishment slows down, and the cost of coal is stable. The spot price is stable after the first price increase, and the futures price follows coking coal fluctuations [1]. 2. Gold - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October has risen to 98.3%. Gold and the US dollar index have risen simultaneously, and gold has reached a new high. Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upward, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. 3. Iron Ore - From October 6th - 12th, the arrival volume at Chinese ports increased. Iron ore demand remains resilient due to stable molten iron production. Port inventories have slightly increased, and steel mill inventories have significantly decreased. There may be an accelerated replenishment demand, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to build long positions in the context of a possible price correction [3]. 4. Rebar - On October 13th, domestic steel prices fell weakly. After the festival, steel market transactions were poor, and due to large inventory increases during the National Day and potential Sino - US trade frictions, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 5. Live Pigs - As of October 10th, pig - farming profits were in the red and worsening. The national pig price showed a north - up, south - down pattern. There is still pressure on the supply side, and prices are expected to decline further. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize [4]. 6. Palm Oil - As of October 10th, the commercial inventory of major oils increased. Malaysian palm oil exports in October increased significantly, and the production - reduction season is approaching, which supports the price. However, trade risks and increased production may suppress the price. There are opportunities for long positions at low prices [4]. 7. Rapeseed Meal - As of October 10th, rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories decreased. Due to the loose soybean meal supply and seasonal decline in rapeseed meal demand, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [5]. 8. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - China's foreign trade has been growing steadily, which supports economic resilience. International risk - aversion sentiment has subsided, which is negative for the bond market. Due to loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, bond market operations are more difficult, and a volatile mindset is recommended [6]. 9. Silver - Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts this year. With the expectation of interest - rate cuts and improved risk appetite, silver prices have risen. Silver is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [6]. 10. Plastics - The price of LLDPE in North China has weakened. Production enterprise inventories have increased, and there are more maintenance devices. Downstream factories are expected to replenish inventory after the holiday, and the cost support is weakening. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. 11. PVC - The price of PVC in East China has decreased. Supply is abundant, social inventories are rising, and downstream demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [8]. 12. Glass - The average price of float glass has decreased. The profits and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are stable, downstream orders have recovered but are still weak, and inventories have increased. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. 13. Crude Oil - OPEC + production increased in September, and there are uncertainties in global energy demand due to factors such as the US government shutdown and tariff policies. The geopolitical premium has decreased, and the fundamental driving force is weak [10]. 14. Rubber - The price of rubber raw materials in Thailand and Hainan is provided. China's rubber imports increased in September. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. Short - term supply is expected to increase, but medium - term supply may be affected by low inventory and upcoming shutdowns in domestic rubber - producing areas [11]. 15. PX - Domestic and Asian PX operating rates are at a relatively high level. Due to the low processing fee of PTA and expected maintenance of PTA devices, PX supply and demand drivers are weak [12].