燃料油日报：宏观风险显现，市场波动增加-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 2.35% at 2,737 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3% at 3,232 yuan/ton The recent continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward trend in the energy sector, and the FU and LU contracts are operating weakly [1] - During the China-US tariff negotiation window, oil prices may be affected by various news, and volatility may increase significantly [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently acceptable, with tightened Middle East supply and improved refinery demand boosting the market However, based on the current valuation and supply-demand situation, the upward drive and space are still limited, and new variables are needed for catalysis [1] - In the case of low-sulfur fuel oil, the shutdown of the RFCC units at the Dangote and Pengerang refineries has led to an increase in local supply, with September shipments reaching 500,000 tons, which has suppressed the spot market According to the latest news from IIR, the Dangote refinery's units may restart on October 14, and if they operate smoothly, the refinery's low-sulfur fuel oil production will decline again, alleviating local supply pressure [1] - Against the backdrop of increasing tariff risks, shipping and marine fuel demand also face potential pressure Compared with high-sulfur fuel oil, the downstream demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and may be more sensitive [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 2.35% at 2,737 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3% at 3,232 yuan/ton [1] - The recent continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward trend in the energy sector, and the FU and LU contracts are operating weakly [1] - During the China-US tariff negotiation window, oil prices may be affected by various news, and volatility may increase significantly [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently acceptable, with tightened Middle East supply and improved refinery demand boosting the market However, based on the current valuation and supply-demand situation, the upward drive and space are still limited, and new variables are needed for catalysis [1] - In the case of low-sulfur fuel oil, the shutdown of the RFCC units at the Dangote and Pengerang refineries has led to an increase in local supply, with September shipments reaching 500,000 tons, which has suppressed the spot market According to the latest news from IIR, the Dangote refinery's units may restart on October 14, and if they operate smoothly, the refinery's low-sulfur fuel oil production will decline again, alleviating local supply pressure [1] - Against the backdrop of increasing tariff risks, shipping and marine fuel demand also face potential pressure Compared with high-sulfur fuel oil, the downstream demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and may be more sensitive [1] Strategy - High-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Low-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]