新能源及有色金属日报：美联储官员再发鸽派言论，铜价震荡走强-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put @ 83,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - During the National Day holiday, copper prices strengthened due to the restart of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and frequent mine - end disruptions. However, the processing fee of - 40 dollars/ton already reflects the tightness of mine - end resources, so the short - term increase in copper prices caused by mine - end disruptions may not be persistent. When the Sino - US trade dispute intensified last Friday, copper prices fell. But low processing fees and the Fed's interest - rate cuts limit the downside of copper prices. It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging for Shanghai copper, with the buying range at 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 13, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 86,600 yuan/ton and closed at 85,120 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from the previous trading day's close. Last night, it opened at 85,800 yuan/ton and closed at 86,520 yuan/ton, up 1.64% from yesterday's afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, yesterday, the spot quotation of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 10 yuan to a premium of 170 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 80 yuan, up 60 yuan from the previous day. The copper price ranged from 84,800 to 85,290 yuan/ton, rising in the morning and then falling to around 84,600 yuan. The inter - month spread narrowed, and the import loss was about 800 yuan/ton. The center of gravity of copper prices moved down, the spot premium slightly rebounded, and the downstream purchasing sentiment improved slightly. The purchase and sales sentiment indices in Shanghai were 2.99 and 3.09 respectively. Sellers lowered the premium of high - grade copper, and the transaction of flat - grade copper was close to par. It is expected that copper prices will remain high tomorrow, and spot trading is difficult to improve significantly. Market activity may further decline as the delivery approaches [2] Important Information Summaries - Fed: Fed's Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year and believes that monetary policy should ignore the impact of tariffs on consumer price increases as there are no conditions for tariff - induced price increases to turn into sustained inflation [3] - Economic Forecast: The NABE survey shows that economists have raised the growth forecasts for the US economy this year and next, but expect weak employment growth. They predict that the inflation - adjusted US GDP will grow 1.8% this year, up from the 1.3% forecast in June [3] - Mine End: Antofagasta started the key stage of its copper mine growth strategy with the first blasting at the Encuentro sulfide ore pit of the Centinela copper mine on October 10. This marks the start of the initial stripping operation, which will supply higher - grade sulfide ore to the second concentrator of the Centinela copper mine. The company plans to increase copper production by 30% in the medium term. The Encuentro sulfide ore project was approved in July 2025, with an expected investment of 1 billion US dollars, and the stripping stage is expected to be completed in 2028. Meanwhile, Codelco's El Teniente mine in Chile, after a fatal rock collapse in late July, has resumed partial operations, but production may remain well below full capacity for months, with the impact expected to last until 2026. The production loss this year is expected to reach 48,000 tons, higher than the previous forecast. The mine produced 356,000 tons last year. Codelco plans to decide whether to restart the affected area after completing the accident investigation in December [4] - Smelting and Import: LME copper inventories fluctuated last week, with the latest level at 139,400 tons, at a relatively low level in over two months. SHFE copper inventories increased by 15.42% to 109,690 tons in the week of October 10, reaching a five - month high. International copper inventories decreased by 604 tons to 11,673 tons. New York copper inventories continued to increase, reaching a new high since the end of May 2003 at 339,525 tons [4] - Consumption: According to Mysteel research, among 61 domestic refined copper rod producers with a total capacity of 15.84 million tons (including new capacity in 2025), the output in September was 849,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.23%, up 2.22% month - on - month and down 0.84% year - on - year. Although the output and capacity utilization rate increased slightly month - on - month, they still fell short of the companies' plans. Orders for refined copper rods in September were lower than expected, and the actual order performance was worse than in previous years. Some copper rod enterprises reported that September orders were lower than in August. Among 64 domestic copper bar sample enterprises with a total capacity of 2.2865 million tons, the output in September 2025 was 99,960 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from August, a growth rate of 2.09%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 50.9%, up 1.04% month - on - month. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of 14 enterprises with an annual capacity of over 50,000 tons was 61.94%, up 2.19% month - on - month, while that of 50 enterprises with an annual capacity of less than 50,000 tons was 37.57%, down 0.34% month - on - month. The copper bar market in September was only slightly better than in August, and there was no significant recovery, with a slight increase in capacity utilization [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 75 tons to 139,350 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,926 tons to 32,890 tons. On October 13, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 172,000 tons, a change of 5,700 tons from the previous week [6] Copper Price and Basis Data - The table shows data on spot (including different grades of copper and premiums), inventory (LME, SHFE, COMEX), warehouse receipts (SHFE and LME cancellation ratio), arbitrage, import profit, and other aspects from different time points (today, yesterday, last week, one month ago) [26][27][28]