华泰期货油料日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by auction - related supply - demand adjustments, with new - season soybeans in the Northeast increasing in supply, and the price is expected to stabilize in the short term. The peanut market is influenced by supply factors, with supply differentiation in different regions and cautious market purchasing behavior [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Contents Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soy - one 2511 contract yesterday was 3961.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan/ton or 0.20% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The basis of edible soybean spot was A11 + 79, down 188 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] - Market Information: New - season soybeans in the Northeast market are increasing in volume, with price polarization. The price of low - protein common soybeans is 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, 39% protein soybeans are 1.9 yuan/jin, and over 40% protein soybeans are 1.95 - 2 yuan/jin. The prices of many regions in Heilongjiang have declined [2] - Market Trend: The soy - one futures rose and then fell yesterday. Cofco plans to auction 43,000 tons of domestic soybeans on October 14. The supply of new - season soybeans in the Northeast is increasing, and potential supply pressure may suppress prices [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7902.00 yuan/ton, up 116.00 yuan/ton or 1.49% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8370.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.36% month - on - month. The basis was PK11 + 298.00, down 316.00 or 51.47% month - on - month. The national average price of general peanuts was 4.17 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. Oil mills' procurement was cautious [4] - Market Trend: Peanut futures fluctuated strongly yesterday. There is supply differentiation in different peanut - producing areas. Most large oil mills have no plans to start purchasing or operating, and the purchasing behavior of food factories and wholesale markets is also cautious [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6] Risk - The risk is weakening demand [6]