Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Other varieties: No clear overall industry investment rating, but specific short - term outlooks are provided for each variety Core Views - The report provides short - term outlooks for multiple futures varieties, including short - term consolidation, short - term shocks, high - level shocks, and bearish views, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand fundamentals and market news [1] Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - Price and Market Situation: The main contract of soybean meal futures closed at 2932 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day. Spot prices generally declined. National average soybean crushing profit was - 111.6196 yuan/ton, down 18.40 yuan. The basis of soybean meal 01 decreased by 30 yuan to - 12 yuan [2] - Supply - demand Fundamentals: As of October 10, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, an increase of 70.70 million tons from the week of September 26; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, an increase of 45.85 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.29%. US old - crop soybean inventory was 316 million bushels as of September 1, 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Brazilian soybean planting rate as of October 4, 2025, was 8.2% [3][4] - Market Outlook: Short - term consolidation. With the harvest of US soybeans, the existence of Sino - US negotiation voices, and a slight improvement in Brazilian rainfall, there is a lack of driving factors. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade [1][4] Rapeseed Meal - Price and Market Situation: The main contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2392 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. National average rapeseed meal spot price remained unchanged. National average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 258.7595 yuan/ton, down 77.40 yuan [5] - Supply - demand Fundamentals: As of October 10, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a decrease of 1.53 million tons. International rapeseed production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestic rapeseed meal is in a destocking state, but demand enters the off - season [6] - Market Outlook: Short - term consolidation. Trade policies and high inventories lead to a mix of long and short factors. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal due to the lack of new driving factors [1][6] Palm Oil - Price and Market Situation: The main contract of palm oil futures closed at 9364 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan or 0.78% from the previous day. National average price decreased by 220 yuan to 9325 yuan/ton. Weekly commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons [7] - Supply - demand Fundamentals: As of October 10, 2025, national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.65%. Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy has made new progress, which is expected to increase future demand. Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% compared with the previous month, but it continued to accumulate inventory in September [9] - Market Outlook: Short - term shock. It is temporarily treated as a high - level shock market. Although future demand is expected to increase, the inventory increase in September in Malaysia has put pressure on prices [1][9] Cotton - Price and Market Situation: The main contract of cotton futures (CF2601) closed at 13300 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day. Cotton commercial inventory increased by 17.46 million tons to 115.54 million tons [10] - Supply - demand Fundamentals: Internationally, US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries are increasing supply, and export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton is being continuously harvested, and the opening price is weakening. Demand is weak, with a decline in orders and operating rates, and September's foreign trade performance continued to weaken [11][12] - Market Outlook: Bearish. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term due to strong supply and weak demand [1][13] Jujube - Price and Market Situation: The main contract of jujube futures (CJ2601) closed at 11130 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons [14] - Supply - demand Fundamentals: New - season jujube production is expected to decrease, but the decline is not as large as in 2023. After combining with carry - over inventory, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap. The demand side is relatively flat [15] - Market Outlook: Cautiously bearish. There is still pressure after the new fruit is listed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1][15] Live Pig - Price and Market Situation: The main contract of live pig futures (lh2511) closed at 11125 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan or 1.72% from the previous day. National average spot price of live pigs decreased by 70 yuan to 11260 yuan/ton [16] - Supply - demand Fundamentals: In the short term, supply pressure is strong, with an expected increase in planned slaughter in October. In the medium term, the number of slaughtered pigs is expected to increase. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is decreasing. After the double - festival concentrated stocking, terminal demand is declining [17] - Market Outlook: Cautiously bearish. It is expected to continue the weak shock market, and it is recommended to continue short - allocation and reverse arbitrage, paying attention to risk control [1][18]
中辉期货豆粕日报-20251014
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-14 05:48