中辉有色观点-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold (★★★) [1] - Silver: Stabilize and go long (★★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term hold (★★) [1] - Zinc: Short - term rebound with limited upside, long - term sell on rallies (★) [1] - Lead: Under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: Under pressure (★) [1] - Aluminum: Rebound (★★) [1] - Nickel: Under pressure (★) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Rebound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Pullback (★) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range oscillation (★) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions such as unstable G2 relations, chaotic situations in Japan and France, and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict lead to a resurgence of short - term risk - aversion sentiment, making gold and silver good investment choices both in the short and long term [1][3] - Copper is expected to perform well in the long run due to factors like copper concentrate shortages and the explosion of green copper demand, despite short - term market fluctuations [1][7] - Zinc supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, so it is a short - side configuration in the long term, with limited short - term upside [1][10] - Aluminum prices are expected to rebound in the short term, although facing inventory pressure [1][14] - Nickel prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply and inventory accumulation [1][18] - Lithium carbonate fundamentals are in a tight balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][22] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Geopolitical chaos causes risk - aversion sentiment to heat up, leading to a sharp rise in gold and silver prices [2] - Basic Logic: Unresolved Sino - US relations, political instability in Japan and France, long - term positive factors for gold such as global monetary easing and dollar credit decline, and a continuous supply shortage of silver [3] - Strategy Recommendation: For gold, maintain a long - position thinking in both the short and long term; for silver, pay attention to macro - sentiment and market rhythm, and consider long - term holding [4] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper gaps up and rises, and London copper rises by over 4% [6] - Industrial Logic: Supply concerns intensify due to mine accidents and production slowdowns. Production is expected to decline, and downstream demand is strong in green industries [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Use trailing stops for short - term long positions. Be optimistic about copper in the long run and focus on specific price ranges [7] Zinc - Market Review: Zinc prices fall under pressure, and London zinc fluctuates around the 3000 mark [9] - Industrial Logic: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, but demand is weak. There is a risk of a soft squeeze on London zinc inventory [9] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term rebound with limited upside. Sell - hedge and go short on rallies in the long term, and focus on specific price ranges [10] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina continues to be weak [12] - Industrial Logic: There is an inventory build - up in electrolytic aluminum, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13] - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips in the short term, pay attention to downstream processing enterprise operations, and focus on specific price ranges [14] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices fall under pressure, and stainless steel shows a weak trend [16] - Industrial Logic: Nickel supply is sufficient, and stainless steel demand is uncertain during the peak season [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see, pay attention to downstream consumption improvement, and focus on specific price ranges [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opens slightly lower and fluctuates at a low level throughout the day [20] - Industrial Logic: Supply and demand are both increasing. Domestic production hits a new high, and demand remains firm. Social inventory may continue to decline [21] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see, and focus on the price range of 2601 [22]