新能源及有色金属日报：关税扰动制造良好买入保值机会-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Report's Core View - The escalation of the Sino-US tariff trade war has caused a general correction in non-ferrous commodities, but the correction in aluminum prices presents a good opportunity for buying hedges. The tariff issue has little impact on the supply and demand fundamentals of aluminum, and there are still many favorable factors overseas. Domestic consumption is steadily recovering, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff issue in the short term [6]. - The alumina market at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost-side game. There are no signs of improvement in the alumina fundamentals, but as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current price is undervalued [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On October 13, 2025, the SMM data showed that the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,800 yuan/ton, a change of -180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium and discount of East China aluminum was -50 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount changed by -10 yuan/ton to -90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,730 yuan/ton, a change of -180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount changed by -5 yuan/ton to -120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,040 yuan/ton, closed at 20,885 yuan/ton, a change of -205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 21,050 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 20,730 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 191,737 lots, and the position was 170,895 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 13, 2025, the SMM statistics showed that the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 650,000 tons, a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 63,151 tons, a change of 4,032 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 506,000 tons, a change of -2,825 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On October 13, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,875 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,940 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,125 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,120 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,856 yuan/ton, closed at 2,820 yuan/ton, a change of -57 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change amplitude of -1.98%, a maximum price of 2,856 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,804 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 288,895 lots, and the position was 351,910 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 13, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,700 tons, and the in-plant inventory was 61,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,520 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 180 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - Electrolytic Aluminum: The escalation of the Sino-US tariff trade war has caused a general correction in non-ferrous commodities, but the correction in aluminum prices presents a good opportunity for buying hedges. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply and demand fundamentals of aluminum. The overseas macro favorable factors still exist, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering [6]. - Alumina: The spot markets at home and abroad have not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost-side game. There are no signs of improvement in the alumina fundamentals, but as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current price is undervalued [8]. Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum is cautiously bullish, alumina is neutral, and aluminum alloy is cautiously bullish [9]. - Arbitrage: Shanghai aluminum positive spread [9]