贵金属日报：美联储官员再放鸽，贵金属延续强势表现-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market continues to show strong performance. The Fed official's dovish signal on interest rate cuts and the global risk asset pullback due to tariff issues have strengthened the safe-haven property of gold. Silver also benefits from the same macro - factors and spot shortages [1][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year and believes that monetary policy should ignore the impact of tariffs on consumer price increases. Economists have raised the US economic growth forecast for this year and next, but expect weak employment growth. The expected inflation - adjusted US GDP growth this year is 1.8%, up from 1.3% in June [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 904.88 yuan/gram, closed at 927.56 yuan/gram, a 2.88% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 936.72 yuan/gram, up 0.99% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,189.00 yuan/kg, closed at 11,531.00 yuan/kg, a 4.05% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,879,157 lots, and the open interest was 495,579 lots. The night - session closed at 11,710 yuan/kg, up 1.55% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 13, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.057%, up 0.38 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.531%, up 0.18 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by 5 lots, and the short position changed by 254 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 618,953 lots, a 100.67% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 2 lots, and the short position changed by - 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,823,544 lots, a 161.01% change from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,017.16 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,754 tons, an increase of 310 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On October 13, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 23.21 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1,081.43 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 80.44, a - 0.62% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 78.76, a - 3.10% change from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On October 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 63,730 kg, a 38.48% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,573,640 kg, a 20.02% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 12,492 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 144,840 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: The Au2512 contract may oscillate between 925 yuan/gram and 955 yuan/gram. - Silver: The Ag2512 contract may oscillate between 11,500 yuan/kg and 11,800 yuan/kg [8].