液化石油气日报：宏观不确定性仍存，市场氛围一般-20251014

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Holders of previous short positions can take appropriate profit, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. There are no recommendations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is facing pressure. The overall supply - demand pattern remains loose, with abundant overseas supply, high exports from the Middle East and North America, and potential for further growth. Saudi CP official prices are continuously decreasing, and high arrival volumes and port inventories in China are suppressing the domestic market. Downstream chemical profits are shrinking, limiting the growth of chemical terminal demand, and the improvement in combustion terminal consumption after the off - season is weak. There is a lack of positive factors in the market. Although price drops may lead to profit repair and increased buying, the threat of US tariffs adds new uncertainties, so short - term caution is recommended [1] 3) Summary According to Related Contents Market Analysis - On October 13, regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4430 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3960 - 4360 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4550 yuan/ton; East China market, 4240 - 4480 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4670 - 4890 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4500 - 4600 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of November 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane and butane in East China were 532 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) and 512 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4159 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton) and 4002 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 527 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) and 507 dollars/ton (down 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4120 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton) and 3963 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - Recently, the LPG futures market has been weak, and the basis has strengthened. Spot prices in various regions mainly declined yesterday. In the East China civil gas market, the mainstream transaction price decreased compared to the previous working day, with sufficient supply and average market sentiment [1] Charts - The report includes charts showing the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River regions, the spot prices of ether - after carbon four in multiple regions, and the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of PG futures contracts [3]