油脂日报：油脂多空交织，价格震荡运行-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. South American soybean sowing progress is good, with some producing areas setting new records. There are strong expectations of a bumper harvest in North America, and the global soybean supply is sufficient. Palm oil production remains at a relatively high level. Although the biodiesel policy may provide some support for prices, the market is currently a mix of long and short factors, resulting in a volatile market [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan or 0.78% from the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,268 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan or 0.41%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan or 0.39% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 2.33% from the previous day, with a spot basis of P01 + -144 yuan, a decrease of 146 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 1.06%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 162 yuan, a decrease of 56 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.10%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 298 yuan, an increase of 29 yuan [1] Market Information Aggregation - Brazilian Crop Sowing: As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 14%, making it the third - fastest sowing progress in the same period. The current sowing progress is higher than 9% a week ago and 8% in the same period last year. The sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 first - crop corn has reached 45% of the planned planting area in the central - southern region, higher than 41% in the same period last year [2] - Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2651 million tons, an increase of 16,400 tons or 1.31% from the previous week. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 547,600 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous week [2] - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: From October 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.02% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11%, and the output increased by 6.59% [2] - Import Prices: There were various price adjustments for imported agricultural products, including decreases in the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed, American and Brazilian soybeans, and some adjustments in the C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil [2]