甲醇日报：港口基差快速走强-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The port basis of methanol has strengthened rapidly due to factors such as the intensification of Sino - US trade conflicts and the potential impact on Iranian methanol vessel berthing. The support from the inland to the port has weakened as the coal - based methanol operating rate has rebounded and inland inventory has increased from a low level. Traditional downstream industries have seen varying degrees of decline in operating rates [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report includes multiple figures related to methanol basis, such as the methanol Taicang basis and the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (MA2601 - MA2605, etc.) [7][9][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, as well as the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol and the MTO profit in East China [25][29][33] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) is presented [34][36][40] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report provides data on regional price differences, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and between different regions like Guangdong and East China [38][45][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][57] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 at low prices - Inter - variety: Narrow the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 at high prices [4]