螺纹钢：弱现实叠加预期转弱，钢价或小幅回调，热轧卷板，弱现实叠加预期转弱，钢价或小幅回调

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are facing a combination of weak current situations and weakening expectations, and steel prices may experience a slight correction [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,083 yuan/ton and 3,261 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -24 yuan/ton (-0.77%) and -29 yuan/ton (-0.88%). The trading volumes were 1,231,858 hands and 557,390 hands, and the open interests were 1,952,748 hands and 1,422,524 hands, with increases of 26,595 hands and 24,873 hands respectively [1] - Spot Price Data: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton; hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - Basis and Spread Data: The basis of RB2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2601 decreased by 6 yuan/ton. The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 remained unchanged, the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 increased by 50, the spread of HC2601 - RB2601 decreased by 4, the spread of HC2605 - RB2605 increased by 2, and the spot coil - rebar spread decreased by 10 [1] Macro and Industry News - In October 2025, the US announced export controls on relevant items such as rare earths from China, imposing a 100% tariff and implementing export controls on all key software [1][3] - In August 2025, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease, with an average export price of $698.0/ton, basically unchanged from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase, with an average export price of $699.1/ton, a 10.1% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's steel imports were 50,000 tons, a 10.4% month - on - month increase, and the average import price was $1,653.0/ton, an 8.4% month - on - month decrease. From January to August, the cumulative steel imports were 3.977 million tons, a 14.1% year - on - year decrease, with an average import price of $1,697.7/ton, a 1.5% year - on - year increase [3] - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on October 8, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 36,200 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 14,000 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar increased by 239,600 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 299,200 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 950,600 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 336,400 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]