光大期货能化商品日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It gives individual views on various energy and chemical products, mostly indicating a "volatile" outlook for each product. 2. Core Views - Crude Oil: Prices showed a slight rebound on Monday. WTI 11 - month contract closed up $0.59 to $59.49 per barrel, a 1.00% increase; Brent 12 - month contract closed up $0.59 to $63.32 per barrel, a 0.94% increase; SC2511 closed at 452.7 yuan per barrel, up 1.2 yuan per barrel, a 0.27% increase. With the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East and OPEC+ production increases, and current macro - risk disturbances, oil prices are expected to be mainly volatile [1]. - Fuel Oil: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined on Monday. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively strong. Under the pressure of new tariffs, the absolute prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [2]. - Asphalt: The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined on Monday. There is still some construction rush expectation after the holiday, but the previous significant increase in asphalt production may suppress prices. Under tariff pressure, asphalt prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - Polyester: Polyester chain prices are weakly volatile. The average sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are estimated to be less than 50%. Some MEG devices have maintenance and restart operations. With a high polyester start - up rate and limited room for further increase, and a loose supply pattern of TA and EG, prices will follow crude oil prices in the short term [2][4]. - Rubber: The prices of main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined on Monday. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year. With normal rubber tapping in major production areas, high tire inventory, and weak demand due to tariffs, rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4][5]. - Methanol: Affected by US sanctions on Iranian shipping, the subsequent arrival volume of methanol may decline. Although the re - escalation of Sino - US trade friction has a negative impact on chemical product valuations, methanol may perform better than downstream olefin products. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins, as well as the positive spread strategy between months [5]. - Polyolefins: The prices of polyolefins are expected to be weak. The short - term production will remain high, and although there is still support for downstream orders in October, the marginal increase will gradually decline. The decline in crude oil prices due to the re - escalation of Sino - US trade friction also affects polyolefin prices [5][6]. - PVC: The prices of PVC in East, North, and South China markets showed a weak adjustment on Monday. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy and the escalation of Sino - US trade friction. With high inventory pressure, PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Monday, oil prices rebounded slightly. The cease - fire agreement in the Middle East and OPEC+ production increases are the main influencing factors. OPEC+ data shows that Russia's oil production in September increased to 9.321 million barrels per day, still below the quota. OPEC+ aims to increase production by more than 2.7 million barrels per day this year, equivalent to about 2.5% of global oil demand. Crude oil prices are expected to be volatile [1]. - Fuel Oil: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil declined. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, while the high - sulfur market is relatively strong. Under tariff pressure, prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [2]. - Asphalt: The main asphalt contract declined. There is construction rush expectation after the holiday, but previous production increases may suppress prices. Under tariff pressure, prices are expected to be volatile and weak with a smaller decline [2]. - Polyester: Polyester chain prices are weakly volatile. Sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are low. Some MEG devices have maintenance and restart operations. With a high start - up rate and loose supply, prices follow crude oil prices [2][4]. - Rubber: Rubber contract prices declined. China's rubber imports increased in 2025. With normal tapping, high tire inventory, and weak demand due to tariffs, prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4][5]. - Methanol: Affected by US sanctions on Iranian shipping, arrival volume may decline. Although trade friction affects chemical product valuations, methanol may perform better than downstream olefins. Strategies such as long methanol and short polyolefins are recommended [5]. - Polyolefins: Prices are expected to be weak. Short - term production remains high, downstream order marginal increase declines, and crude oil price decline affects polyolefins [5][6]. - PVC: PVC market prices are weakly adjusted. Supply is high, demand slows down, and exports are affected. With high inventory, prices are expected to be volatile and weak [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on October 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the changes and historical quantiles of basis rates. It also explains the calculation methods and data sources of some prices [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump first proposed to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese exports to the US, then said the "substantial tariff increase" might not be implemented, and the US vice - president signaled willingness to negotiate. The market's selling is restricted by the negotiation intention, and the short - term outlook depends on the outcome of trade negotiations [10]. - OPEC+ data shows that Russia's oil production in September increased to 9.321 million barrels per day, still below the quota. OPEC+ aims to increase production by more than 2.7 million barrels per day this year, equivalent to about 2.5% of global oil demand [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the historical closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [12][13][14] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and provides data on the basis between different benchmarks for some products [28][29][30] - 4.3 Inter - contract Spreads: The report provides the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][45][46] - 4.4 Inter - product Spreads: It presents the spread charts between different products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][61] - 4.5 Production Profits: The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and LLDPE [68][70][72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: Assistant Director and Energy and Chemical Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute. With a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, she has won multiple "Excellent Analyst" awards and led the team to win industry service awards. She has more than ten years of experience in the futures derivatives market [74]. - Du Bingqin: Analyst of crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With a master's degree from the University of Wisconsin - Madison, she has won multiple industry analyst awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [75]. - Di Yilin: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With a master's degree in finance, she has won multiple analyst awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - Peng Haibo: Analyst of methanol, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With a master's degree from China University of Petroleum (East China), he has years of experience in energy and chemical spot - futures trading [77].