光大期货金融期货日报-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index futures is "Bullish", and for treasury bond futures is "Sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, affected by weekend trade dispute news, the A-share market opened significantly lower and closed slightly down. The long - term upward momentum of the index mainly comes from internal policy expectations, which remain unchanged so far. Short - term IV decline may be a buying opportunity, and one can allocate a small position in November out - of - the - money call options. Before the important meeting on October 20, the index may be in an adjustment phase. If leveraged funds leave the market in the short term, it may affect the valuation of technology stocks [1] - For treasury bonds, the central bank's support has led to a marginal loosening of the money market, and the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war has increased risk - aversion sentiment, so treasury bonds will be strong next week. However, due to the cooling of policy interest - rate cut expectations and the intensification of quasi - fiscal tools, treasury bonds lack the impetus for a significant upward movement [1][2] Summary by Directory Research Views - Stock Index Futures: Affected by trade disputes, A - share market indices such as Wind All A, CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 all declined. Short - term trade disputes may impact the index, but long - term momentum depends on internal policies. The adjustment of margin conversion ratios by some domestic brokers may affect technology stocks. One can consider small - position layout of November out - of - the money call options [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures of different maturities all rose. The central bank conducted 137.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. The money market marginally loosened, and risk - aversion sentiment increased. Although the bonds will be strong next week, they lack the power for a large - scale upward movement [1][2] Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: Contracts such as IH, IF, IC, and IM all declined compared to the previous period, with declines ranging from 0.47% to 0.64% [4] - Stock Indices: Indices including SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also declined, with declines between 0.19% and 0.50% [4] - Treasury Bond Futures: Contracts like TS, TF, T, and TL all rose, with increases from 0.02% to 0.41% [4] Market News - On October 13, customs data showed that in September, China's exports and imports denominated in US dollars both increased year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Exports increased by 8.3% and imports by 7.4% [5] Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report presents the trends of main contracts and the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [7][8][9][10][11] - Treasury Bond Futures: It shows the trends of main contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates [14][17][18][19] - Exchange Rates: Displays the trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and the trends of the US dollar index and currency pairs such as euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen [22][23][24][26][28]