Guohai Securities·2025-10-14 06:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1][22][25] Core Insights - Strong advertising performance, sufficient growth momentum in gaming, and potential acceleration in cloud business are highlighted as key drivers for Tencent's growth [1][22] - The report anticipates Tencent's revenue for Q3 2025 to reach 188.6 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year growth of 13% [6][22] - The expected non-IFRS net profit for Q3 2025 is projected to be 67.9 billion RMB, a 13% increase year-over-year [6][22] Financial Performance Forecast 1. Overall Performance: - Revenue is expected to be 188.6 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 56% and a gross profit of 105.1 billion RMB [6][22] - Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at 71.4 billion RMB, a 17% increase year-over-year [6][22] 2. Gaming Segment: - Anticipated revenue growth of 14% year-over-year, with domestic and overseas growth rates of 8% and 29% respectively [7][10][22] - Notable titles like "Delta Force" are expected to generate over 8 billion RMB in a single quarter [10][22] 3. Marketing Services: - Expected revenue growth of 22% year-over-year, driven by the WeChat ecosystem and strong performance in video accounts and mini-programs [14][22] - Video account advertising revenue is projected to grow over 60% year-over-year [14][22] 4. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services: - Revenue growth of 11% year-over-year is anticipated, with cloud services expected to exceed 20% growth [20][22] - The launch of "Tenpay Global" aims to enhance payment services in international markets [21][22] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for Tencent from 2025 to 2027 are 748.6 billion RMB, 840.3 billion RMB, and 923.6 billion RMB respectively [22][23] - Non-IFRS net profit estimates for the same period are 257.8 billion RMB, 295.4 billion RMB, and 329.9 billion RMB [22][23] - The target market capitalization for Tencent in 2026 is set at 6.5 trillion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 773 HKD [22][23]