9月“旺季不旺”，26年景气或上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector and the basic chemicals sector [6]. Core Views - The industry is experiencing a "weak peak season" in September, with overall demand remaining subdued and capital expenditure in the chemical sector continuing to decline, indicating a potential turning point in supply and demand dynamics [14][22]. - The CCPI-raw material price spread as of the end of September 2025 is at 2439, which is below the 30th percentile since 2012, reflecting weak pricing across most chemical products [2][14]. - The report anticipates an upward trend in industry conditions for 2026, driven by supply-side adjustments and demand recovery, particularly in the context of high energy-consuming facilities exiting the market in Europe and North America [2][40]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The PMI for September 2025 is reported at 49.8, indicating that traditional peak season demand is not being met, with slow recovery expected in the short term [3][17]. - The real estate sector continues to show negative growth, impacting overall demand, while consumer goods and infrastructure sectors are expected to drive future demand for chemical products [17][20]. Supply Side - From January to August 2025, the capital expenditure in the chemical raw materials and products sector has decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, suggesting a tightening supply side and a potential turning point approaching [3][22]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape has intensified, leading to a significant decline in profitability across many sub-sectors since the second half of 2022 [3][22]. Price Trends - Some chemical products have seen price increases due to overseas demand and domestic maintenance activities, while others have declined due to weak demand and reduced supply-side coordination [4][41]. - The report identifies key products with price increases, including methyltrichlorosilane and glyphosate, while products like sucrose and vitamins have seen price declines [4][41]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with improving supply dynamics and new technology-driven products, with recommendations for specific companies such as China Petroleum, Juhua Co., and Dongyue Group [5][40]. - It emphasizes the importance of export-driven growth for domestic chemical products, which maintain competitive advantages in cost and quality [20][40].