工业硅、多晶硅日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 13, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,805 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.92%, and the open interest decreasing by 1,313 lots to 166,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan remained stable at 9,580 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 70 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2511 closing at 48,740 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 2.35%, and the open interest decreasing by 3,344 lots to 87,665 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium widening to 3,565 yuan/ton [2]. - Currently, the demand for polysilicon and aluminum alloys is resilient, and the main variable lies in the supply side. Large - scale production shutdowns are即将 to occur in the southwest. Attention should be focused on the resumption time and supplementary production scale in the north. Considering the resumption rhythm in Xinjiang, short - selling operations at high levels for the far - month contracts are recommended. Recently, there has been much discussion in the market about the registration of a capacity acquisition platform in October and the arrival of funds in November. Due to the failure to reach an agreement on production cuts in October, production has continued to rise. Coupled with lower - than - expected tenders, domestic component production schedules have declined, and the overall terminal market has remained weak. The market is currently waiting for the industry conference in late October and the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. With cautious sentiment building up, the overall volatility of polysilicon may increase under the influence of news, and a cautious and bearish stance is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,685 yuan/ton on October 10 to 8,805 yuan/ton on October 13, an increase of 120 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and at different locations remained stable, with only a few showing small changes. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 200 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 573 to 50,854, and the total social inventory increased by 2,500 tons to 445,000 tons [3]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 48,965 yuan/ton on October 10 to 48,740 yuan/ton on October 13, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased from 3,060 yuan/ton to 3,565 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 240 to 7,900, and the total social inventory increased from 241,000 tons to 254,000 tons [3]. - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 11,200 yuan/ton, and the prices of other organic silicon products such as raw rubber and 107 glue also remained stable, except for dimethyl silicone oil, which increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][16]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [18][21]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [24][26][31]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, a science master, the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an outstanding metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has long been interviewed by multiple media. The team has won the awards for the best non - ferrous metal industry futures research team of Futures Daily and Securities Times in the 15th and 16th sessions and the title of outstanding non - ferrous metal industry team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [33]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He focuses on domestic non - ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients, and has written many in - depth reports, which have been highly recognized by clients [33]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients, and has written many in - depth reports, which have been highly recognized by clients [34].